Jeremy Oles
Share it!
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 31, 2025
Asia – Australia, China & Japan
Australia – Building Approvals & Retail Sales (Jun) – 01:30 UTC
- Forecast: Approvals +1.8% (prev +3.2%), Retail sales +0.4% (prev +0.2%)
- Impact: Cooling in building approvals but improving retail sales suggests consumer resilience despite cooling construction. A mixed signal for AUD and domestic economic sentiment.
China – PMIs (Jul) – 01:30 UTC
- Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 (prev 49.7)
- Composite PMI: prev 50.7
- Non‑Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 (prev 50.5)
- Impact: Stagnant manufacturing and marginal contraction in services may weigh on CNY and equity sentiment, signaling limited growth momentum.
Japan – BoJ Policy & Outlook (02:30 UTC)
- BoJ Interest Rate Decision: 0.50% (unchanged)
- Monetary Policy Statement & Outlook Report released
- Press Conference following
- Impact: Markets will scrutinize the tone of the Statement and Outlook Report. Any shift toward caution or hints on future rate moves could influence JPY and bond markets.
Europe – Eurozone Labor Markets
Unemployment Rate (Jun) – 09:00 UTC
- Forecast: 6.3% (unchanged)
- Impact: Stability in the jobless rate suggests labor market resilience. Limited direct impact, unless accompanied by commentary on wage pressure or labor softness.
United States – Inflation, Employment & Regional Activity
Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC
- Initial Claims Forecast: 222K (prev 217K)
- Continuing Claims: 1,960K (prev 1,955K)
- Impact: A modest rise indicates slight labor softening. If claims trend higher, it could reinforce expectations for a dovish Fed, weighing on USD and supporting Treasuries.
Inflation & Spending Indicators – 12:30 UTC
- Core PCE MoM: +0.3% (prev +0.2%)
- Core PCE YoY: 2.7% (unchanged)
- Headline PCE MoM: +0.3% | YoY: 2.5% (prev 2.3%)
- Personal Spending: +0.4% (prev –0.1%)
- Employment Cost Index Q2: +0.8% (prev 0.9%)
- Impact: Inflation holding near target amid steady spending and moderate wage growth keeps the Fed on data watch. Persistent core PCE above trend could limit dovish guidance, supporting yields and USD.
Chicago PMI (Jul) – 13:45 UTC
- Forecast: 41.9 (prev 40.4)
- Impact: Still deep contraction, though slightly improved. Softness here adds concern about broader industrial activity and regional economic momentum.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – 15:30 UTC
- Forecast: 2.9% (unchanged)
- Impact: Steady growth forecast supports risk sentiment and maintains expectations for Fed caution in communications.
Key Themes & Market Analysis
- U.S. core PCE and jobless claims remain central; upward inflation surprise or deteriorating labor data could tilt Fed outlook Hawkish/Dovish, impacting USD and global asset pricing.
- Personal spending rebound supports consumption-led growth narrative but is tempered by lagging wage growth.
- China & Japan data provide regional economic tone; yen reaction will depend on BoJ’s commentary and political guidance.
- Eurozone unemployment stability is neutral—but serves as a backdrop if future labor market commentary emerges.
- Regional sentiment and inflation data such as Chicago PMI add texture to national growth narratives.
Overall Impact Score: 8/10
Key Watchpoints
- Core PCE behavior: Sustained at or above 0.3% MoM supports rate-hike expectations; a drop below consensus would encourage dovish lean.
- Jobless Claims trend: Any material upward drift may accelerate Fed easing discussion.
- BoJ’s communication: Tone in the policy outlook and press conference will be scrutinized for forward guidance.
- Personal Spending & ECI: Monitor whether wage growth stays ahead or falls behind spending—impacts inflation and Fed posture.
