Upcoming economic events 31 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	PPI (QoQ) (Q4)	1.0%	0.9%
00:30		2 points	PPI (YoY) (Q4)	———-	3.9%
13:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec)	2.8%	2.8%
13:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)	0.2%	0.1%
13:30		2 points	Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4)	0.9%	0.8%
13:30		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———-	———-
13:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Dec)	2.6%	2.4%
13:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Dec)	0.3%	0.1%
13:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec)	0.5%	0.4%
14:45		3 points	Chicago PMI (Jan)	40.3	36.9
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)	———-	———-
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	472
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	576
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	298.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	300.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	18.5K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-75.7K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-71.3K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	-14.7K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	-62.5K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 31, 2025

Australia (🇦🇺)

1. PPI (QoQ) (Q4)(00:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.9%.
   • A rise in producer prices suggests inflationary pressure, potentially influencing RBA policy.
2. PPI (YoY) (Q4)(00:30 UTC)
   • Previous: 3.9%.
   • If higher than expected, the RBA may consider a hawkish stance.

United States (🇺🇸)

3. Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec)(13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 2.8%.
   • This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—stable inflation could signal no immediate rate changes.
4. Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)(13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.1%.
   • A higher reading could pressure the Fed to delay rate cuts.
5. Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4)(13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 0.8%.
   • Rising labor costs could fuel inflation concerns.
6. PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec)(13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 2.6%, Previous: 2.4%.
   • A rise may reinforce the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts.
7. PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)(13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%.
   • A jump in prices could lead to market volatility.
8. Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec)(13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 0.4%.
   • Increased consumer spending may support economic growth.
9. Chicago PMI (Jan)(14:45 UTC)
   • Forecast: 40.3, Previous: 36.9.
   • A below-50 reading indicates contraction in business activity.
10. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) (15:30 UTC)

• Previous: No forecast available.
• Market participants will watch for GDP growth projections.

11. U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (18:00 UTC)

• Previous: 472.
• Changes reflect investment in energy production.

12. U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (18:00 UTC)

• Previous: 576.
• A decline suggests reduced oil drilling activity.

13. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC)

• Includes Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, AUD, JPY, and EUR positioning.
• Shifts in speculative positions indicate market sentiment in major asset classes.

Market Impact Analysis

• AUD: PPI figures could influence RBA expectations; higher PPI may boost AUD.
• USD: Inflation data (PCE) and employment costs will shape Fed rate expectations.
• Equities: Chicago PMI and Personal Spending data could impact sentiment in risk assets.
• Oil Prices: Rig counts and speculative positions may influence crude oil volatility.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: High (PCE inflation data is critical for the Fed).
• Impact Score: 8/10 – Inflation, employment costs, and spending data will drive market moves.