Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | Chinese Composite PMI (Dec) | ———- | 50.8 |
| 01:30 | | 3 points | Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 50.3 | 50.3 |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 50.2 | 50.0 |
| 14:00 |  | 2 points | S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Oct) | ———- | -0.4% |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Oct) | 4.1% | 4.6% |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | ———- | 230.0K |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Gold speculative net positions | ———- | 262.0K |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | ———- | 36.1K |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions | ———- | -39.9K |
| 20:30 |  | 2 points | CFTC AUD speculative net positions | ———- | -61.5K |
| 20:30 |  | 2 points | CFTC JPY speculative net positions | ———- | 6.0K |
| 20:30 |  | 2 points | CFTC EUR speculative net positions | ———- | -65.9K |
| 21:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ———- | -4.700M |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 31, 2024
- China PMI Data (01:30 UTC):
- Composite PMI: Previous: 50.8.
- Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 50.3, Previous: 50.3.
- Non-Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 50.2, Previous: 50.0.
PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. Stable or improving data would support risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies like AUD. Weak PMI numbers could weigh on market confidence.
- US S&P/Case-Shiller HPI Data (14:00 UTC):
- MoM (Oct): Previous: -0.4%.
- YoY (Oct): Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.6%.
Tracks home price growth in 20 major US cities. Rising home prices indicate strong demand and economic resilience, supporting the USD. Declines may signal a cooling housing market.
- CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
- Tracks speculative positions in crude oil, gold, equity indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), and key currencies (AUD, JPY, EUR).
Changes may provide insights into market sentiment and investor positioning for year-end.
- Tracks speculative positions in crude oil, gold, equity indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), and key currencies (AUD, JPY, EUR).
- US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
- Previous: -4.700M.
A significant drawdown would indicate strong crude demand, potentially supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies. Inventory builds could pressure oil prices.
- Previous: -4.700M.
Market Impact Analysis
- China PMI Data:
- Positive Scenario: PMI readings above or holding near 50 suggest economic stability or recovery, lifting risk sentiment and supporting commodity-linked currencies.
- Negative Scenario: PMI below 50 would indicate contraction, weighing on global growth sentiment.
- US Housing Data:
- Positive Scenario: Rising home prices signal robust demand, which would support the USD.
- Negative Scenario: Falling home prices could indicate softening consumer confidence, potentially weighing on the USD.
- Crude Oil Inventories:
Drawdowns would support oil prices, benefiting commodity-linked currencies. Builds may pressure prices. - CFTC Speculative Positions:
End-of-year adjustments in speculative positions could indicate market rebalancing and influence short-term price movements in key assets.
Overall Impact
Volatility: Moderate, with potential year-end positioning and global PMI data influencing sentiment.
Impact Score: 6/10, as economic indicators and speculative positions align market sentiment heading into the new year.
