Upcoming economic events 30 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Q3)	2.3%	3.8%
00:30		2 points	CPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.3%	1.0%
00:30		2 points	Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.7%	0.8%
10:00		2 points	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	0.8%	0.6%
10:00		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.2%	0.2%
12:15		3 points	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)	101K	143K
12:30		2 points	Core PCE Prices (Q3)	———	2.80%
12:30		3 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	3.0%	3.0%
12:30		2 points	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)	2.0%	2.5%
14:00		2 points	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)	0.9%	0.6%
14:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———	5.474M
14:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	-0.346M
15:00		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———
23:50		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)	0.9%	-3.3%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 30, 2024

1. Australia CPI (YoY) (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
   Tracks annual inflation. Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%. Lower inflation would indicate easing price pressures, potentially impacting RBA rate decisions.
2. Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
   Measures quarterly change in consumer prices. Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 1.0%. Slower inflation may reduce pressure on the RBA for further tightening.
3. Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
   The RBA’s preferred measure of core inflation. Forecast: 0.7%, Previous: 0.8%. A lower reading suggests subdued inflation, supporting a dovish outlook.
4. Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q3) (10:00 UTC):
   Year-over-year growth in Eurozone GDP. Forecast: 0.8%, Previous: 0.6%. Higher-than-expected growth would signal economic resilience, supporting the EUR.
5. Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (10:00 UTC):
   Quarterly growth rate in the Eurozone economy. Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%. Stable growth would indicate modest economic activity.
6. US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) (12:15 UTC):
   Private sector employment change. Forecast: 101K, Previous: 143K. Lower employment growth would suggest a cooling labor market, which could impact the Fed’s rate outlook.
7. US Core PCE Prices (Q3) (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks changes in the core personal consumption expenditures index. Previous: 2.8%. Core PCE is a key inflation measure watched by the Fed.
8. US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures quarterly growth in the US economy. Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: 3.0%. Strong GDP growth would support expectations for a resilient economy.
9. US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures inflation within the GDP report. Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 2.5%. Lower inflation would reduce concerns of overheating in the economy.
10. US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
    Measures month-over-month change in home sales. Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 0.6%. An increase would signal housing market strength.
11. US Crude Oil Inventories (14:30 UTC):
    Tracks weekly changes in US crude stockpiles. Previous: 5.474M. A build in inventories signals weaker demand, while a drawdown suggests stronger demand.
12. Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (14:30 UTC):
    Measures oil storage levels at Cushing, Oklahoma. Previous: -0.346M. Changes here can impact US crude prices.
13. ECB’s Schnabel Speaks (15:00 UTC):
    ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel may provide insights into the ECB’s views on inflation and monetary policy.
14. Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) (23:50 UTC):
    Measures monthly change in industrial output. Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: -3.3%. Growth in production would indicate recovery in Japan’s manufacturing sector.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australia CPI Data (YoY, QoQ, Trimmed Mean):
  Lower-than-expected inflation would support a dovish stance from the RBA, potentially weakening the AUD. Higher inflation figures would increase pressure on the RBA for tightening, supporting the AUD.
• Eurozone GDP Data (YoY and QoQ):
  Higher-than-expected GDP growth would support the EUR, signaling economic resilience. Weak growth may weigh on the EUR as it suggests slower economic momentum.
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change:
  A slowdown in job creation could signal a weakening labor market, potentially softening the USD as it suggests lower Fed rate hike probabilities. Strong employment growth would support the USD.
• US Core PCE Prices and GDP Data:
  Higher core PCE and GDP growth would support the USD, reflecting both economic resilience and inflationary pressures. Lower inflation figures would reduce the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, potentially weakening the USD.
• US Crude Oil Inventories:
  A larger-than-expected build in oil inventories would indicate weaker demand, potentially putting downward pressure on oil prices. A drawdown would suggest stronger demand, supporting prices.
• Japan Industrial Production:
  Positive growth in industrial production would support the JPY by signaling recovery in Japan’s manufacturing sector, while weaker data could weigh on the currency.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with focus on inflation data from Australia, GDP figures from the Eurozone and US, and US employment data. Energy markets will also be sensitive to inventory changes.

Impact Score: 8/10, due to key data releases that will shape central bank policy expectations and market sentiment on economic growth and inflation across major economies.