Upcoming economic events 30 May 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr)	3.1%	-8.8%
01:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)	0.3%	0.3%
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)	0.1%	0.0%
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)	2.5%	2.6%
12:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (Apr)	-141.80B	-163.17B
12:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Apr)	———-	2.3%
12:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Apr)	———-	0.0%
12:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr)	0.2%	0.7%
12:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Apr)	———-	0.4%
13:45		3 points	Chicago PMI (May)	45.1	44.6
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (May)	7.3%	6.5%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (May)	4.6%	4.4%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)	46.5	47.3
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)	50.8	52.2
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	2.2%	2.2%
16:20		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———-	———-
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	465
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	566
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	186.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	164.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	14.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-96.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-59.1K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	167.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	74.5K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on May 30, 2025

Australia

1. Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr) – 01:30 UTC

• Forecast: +3.1% | Previous: -8.8%
• Market Impact:
  • A rebound would suggest renewed momentum in housing, potentially supporting AUD and domestic equities.
  • Weak results may prolong sector contraction concerns.

2. Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) – 01:30 UTC

• Forecast: +0.3% | Previous: +0.3%
• Market Impact:
  • A steady rise signals moderate consumer demand.
  • Weakness could reflect softening economic activity, possibly weighing on RBA outlook and AUD.

United States

3. Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY) (Apr) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast (MoM): +0.1% | Previous: 0.0%
• Forecast (YoY): 2.5% | Previous: 2.6%
• Market Impact:
  • As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, a drop in core PCE could reinforce rate cut expectations, supporting equities and Treasuries.
  • Any upside surprise may tighten financial conditions.

4. Goods Trade Balance (Apr) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: -$141.8B | Previous: -$163.17B
• Market Impact:
  • A smaller deficit is positive for GDP contribution, which may support USD.

5. PCE Price Index (YoY & MoM) (Apr) – 12:30 UTC

• Previous YoY: 2.3% | Previous MoM: 0.0%
• Market Impact:
  • Confirmation of soft inflation aligns with dovish Fed stance, easing pressure on interest rates.

6. Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +0.2% | Previous: +0.7%
• Market Impact:
  • A slowdown in spending may raise concerns about consumer fatigue, impacting growth projections.

7. Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Apr) – 12:30 UTC

• Previous: +0.4%
• Market Impact:
  • Inventory builds suggest stable supply chains but may cap future production if demand slows.

8. Chicago PMI (May) – 13:45 UTC

• Forecast: 45.1 | Previous: 44.6
• Market Impact:
  • Remains in contraction (<50). A weak print may signal industrial softness, adding to economic slowdown concerns.

9. University of Michigan Final Survey (May) – 14:00 UTC

• 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Forecast 7.3% | Previous: 6.5%
• 5-Year Inflation Expectations: Forecast 4.6% | Previous: 4.4%
• Consumer Sentiment: Forecast 50.8 | Previous: 52.2
• Market Impact:
  • Higher inflation expectations may undermine Fed confidence in disinflation.
  • Lower sentiment adds to growth uncertainty, especially if confidence keeps falling.

10. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 15:30 UTC

• Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.2%
• Market Impact:
  • Stable outlook affirms moderate growth trajectory. A revision down may impact equities and bond yields.

11. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks – 16:20 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Comments will be scrutinized for monetary policy clues, especially post-inflation data.

12. U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Counts – 17:00 UTC

• Crude: Previous 465 | Total: Previous 566
• Market Impact:
  • Changes in rig activity affect oil supply forecasts and energy sector performance.

13. CFTC Net Positioning – 19:30 UTC

• Key assets: Crude oil, gold, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, AUD, JPY, EUR
• Market Impact:
  • A shift in speculative positions can signal trend momentum or reversal pressure.

Market Impact Analysis

• U.S. inflation data (Core PCE and PCE index) and consumer sentiment dominate market direction.
• Any divergence between inflation and spending trends will sharpen or soften expectations for a Fed pivot.
• Australia’s housing and retail figures may guide short-term AUD moves.
• CFTC positioning and rig counts could stir activity in commodities and energy stocks.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

Key Focus:
Inflation, consumer behavior, and Fed tone dominate U.S. sentiment. Core PCE and Michigan inflation expectations are especially crucial. Markets will be watching for confirmation of disinflation trends or signs that consumer resilience is waning. Expect broad-based asset volatility, particularly in FX (USD, AUD), rates, and equities.