Upcoming economic events 30 June 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Chinese Composite PMI (Jun)	———-	50.4
01:30		3 points	Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	49.6	49.5
01:30		2 points	Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	50.3	50.3
08:30		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
13:45		3 points	Chicago PMI (Jun)	42.7	40.5
14:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———-	———-
17:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
22:00		2 points	NZIER Business Confidence (Q2)	———-	19%
23:50		2 points	Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q2)	———-	3.1%
23:50		2 points	Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q2)	9	12
23:50		2 points	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)	10	12
23:50		2 points	Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2)	34	35

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 30, 2025

China

1. Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – 01:30 UTC

• Forecast: 49.6 | Previous: 49.5
• Market Impact:
  • A reading below 50 signals contraction. A slight increase may not do much, but any significant improvement could support CNY, regional risk sentiment, and commodity-related FX.

2. Chinese Non-Manufacturing & Composite PMI (Jun) – 01:30 UTC

• Non-Manufacturing Forecast: 50.3 | Previous: 50.3
• Composite Forecast: — | Previous: 50.4
• Market Impact:
  • Services and composite strength may partially offset weakness seen in manufacturing, offering mixed signals for China’s overall momentum.

Eurozone

3. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks – 08:30 UTC

4. ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 17:30 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • As the ECB approaches its July meeting, these speeches will offer fresh insights into future rate and inflation trajectory.
  • Any hawkish tone could strengthen EUR; dovish comments may slow its recovery.

United States

5. Chicago PMI (Jun) – 13:45 UTC

• Forecast: 42.7 | Previous: 40.5
• Market Impact:
  • While still in contraction territory, an improvement signals moderation in manufacturing weakness, which could provide modest support to USD and mid-cap equities.

6. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks – 14:00 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Any commentary on the path forward for rates or inflation will move FX and yield markets.

New Zealand

7. NZIER Business Confidence (Q2) – 22:00 UTC

• Previous: 19%
• Market Impact:
  • A low confidence reading reflects corporate caution, potentially slowing NZD.

Japan

8. Tankan Survey – 23:50 UTC

• Capex, Manufacturing, and Non‑Manufacturing Outlook for Large Firms (Q2)
• Forecasts: Capex ~3.1%, Manufacturing Index ~9, Non‑Manufacturing ~34 | Previous: Capex ~?%, Manufacturing ~12, Non‑Manufacturing ~35
• Market Impact:
  • Tankan is key for BoJ policy expectations. Weak outcomes may prompt further easing rumors, weighing on JPY and Japanese equity outlook.

Market Impact Analysis

• China: Mixed PMI results set the tone for Asian manufacturing and risk sentiment.
• ECB commentary is the focal point for EUR guidance.
• U.S. Chicago PMI and Bostic commentary shape near-term Fed expectations.
• Japan’s Tankan influences JPY and capital expenditure strategies.
• NZIER data adds nuance to NZD sentiment.

Overall Impact Score: 7/10

Key Takeaways:

• Expect a moderately active session across Asia and Europe.
• Central bank communications from ECB and the Fed will drive FX and yield moves.
• Watch Tankan and NZER readings for regional policy signals in Japan and New Zealand.