Upcoming economic events 30 July 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Q2)	2.1%	2.4%
01:30		2 points	CPI (QoQ) (Q2)	0.8%	0.9%
01:30		2 points	Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q2)	0.7%	0.7%
09:00		2 points	GDP (YoY) (Q2)	1.2%	1.5%
09:00		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)	0.0%	0.6%
12:15		3 points	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)	82K	-33K
12:30		2 points	Core PCE Prices (Q2)	———-	3.50%
12:30		3 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)	2.4%	-0.5%
12:30		2 points	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)	2.3%	3.8%
14:00		2 points	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)	0.3%	1.8%
14:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———-	-3.169M
14:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———-	0.455M
18:00		3 points	FOMC Statement	———-	———-
18:00		3 points	Fed Interest Rate Decision	4.50%	4.50%
18:30		3 points	FOMC Press Conference	———-	———-
23:50		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)	-0.7%	-0.1%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 30, 2025

Asia – Australia & Japan

Australia – CPI Q2 (YoY/QoQ & Trimmed-Mean) – 01:30 UTC

• Forecast YoY: 2.1% (prev 2.4%)
• Forecast QoQ: 0.8% (prev 0.9%)
• Trimmed-Mean QoQ: 0.7% (unchanged)
• Impact: A deceleration in inflation suggests moderation in pricing pressure, which may reduce pressure on the RBA to hike rates and weaken AUD modestly. A stable trimmed mean indicates persistent core inflation, which could temper dovish expectations.

Japan – Industrial Production (MoM, Jun) – 23:50 UTC

• Forecast: –0.7% (prev –0.1%)
• Impact: A deeper contraction may indicate slower industrial output and weak demand—potentially negative for JPY and local equities.

Europe – Eurozone Growth Data

GDP Q2 – 09:00 UTC

• Quarter-on-Quarter: 0.0% (prev +0.6%)
• Year-on-Year: 1.2% (prev 1.5%)
• Impact: Flat QoQ growth alongside a slowdown YoY may reinforce concerns about Eurozone stagnation, pressuring the EUR and prompting cautious sentiment toward European asset classes.

United States – Labor, Growth, Housing & Fed Policy

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) – 12:15 UTC

• Forecast: +82K (prev –33K)
• Impact: A strong rebound suggests job growth momentum, which may reduce speculation of imminent Fed rate cuts and support the USD.

GDP (QoQ, Q2) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +2.4% (prev –0.5%)
• Impact: Indicates a strong rebound from Q1 contraction—suggests resilient economic activity and supports a Fed pause or cautious messaging.

GDP Price Index (QoQ, Q2) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +2.3% (prev 3.8%)
• Impact: Moderating prices ease inflation concerns, potentially reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependent stance toward rate cuts.

Core PCE Price Index (Q2) – 12:30 UTC

• Impact: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure remains critical—persistent upside surprises may delay easing.

Pending Home Sales (MoM, Jun) – 14:00 UTC

• Forecast: +0.3% (prev +1.8%)
• Impact: Slower growth may reflect rate-sensitive cooling in housing; weak numbers could weigh on homebuilder stocks and signal softer consumption.

Crude Oil Inventories & Cushing Data – 14:30 UTC

• Previous: –3.169M draw (Cushing +0.455M)
• Impact: Drawdown supports oil prices; builds—including at Cushing—may cap price gains or pressure energy equities.

Federal Reserve – Policy Decision & Guidance

FOMC Statement & Rate Decision – 18:00 UTC

• Rate Decision: Expected to remain at 4.50% (unchanged)
• Impact: The statement will convey the Fed’s forward guidance on rate cuts, with subtle cues on the timing of easing. Market will parse language around inflation and employment.

FOMC Press Conference – 18:30 UTC

• Impact: Chair’s remarks and Q&A session are crucial. Any shift in tone—forward tilt or dovish hints—will likely cause volatility in USD, Treasuries, and equity markets.

Market Impact Analysis

• U.S. Federal Reserve action dominates the day. The statement and press conference are likely to be the key drivers of global risk sentiment.
• U.S. macro data (ADP, GDP, housing) provide context for the policy decision, especially regarding employment and growth momentum.
• Eurozone GDP adds to global growth assessment, potentially weakening EUR.
• Australian CPI and Japanese industrial production contain signals for regional inflation and output trends that may influence AUD and JPY.
• Energy data offers additional color for inflation expectations and sector rotations within equities.

Overall Impact Score: 9.5 / 10

Key Watchpoints:

• Fed statement and press conference tone: hawkish vs dovish cues.
• U.S. employment and growth data: upward surprises may delay rate cuts.
• Core PCE results: central to inflation outlook and Fed decisions.
• Eurozone GDP: if flat as forecast, could reinforce dovish ECB expectations.
• Australia CPI and Japan output: secondary but influential for Asian currency moves.