Upcoming economic events 30 August 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)	0.5%	0.1%
07:05		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———
07:35		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———
09:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)	2.8%	2.9%
09:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Aug)	———	0.0%
09:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Aug)	2.2%	2.6%
09:00		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Jul)	6.5%	6.5%
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)	0.2%	0.2%
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)	2.7%	2.6%
12:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Jul)	0.2%	0.1%
12:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Jul)	2.6%	2.5%
12:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)	0.5%	0.3%
13:45		3 points	Chicago PMI (Aug)	45.0	45.3
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug)	2.9%	2.9%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug)	3.0%	3.0%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug)	72.1	68.8
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)	67.8	66.4
14:00		2 points	ECB’s Supervisory Board Member Jochnick Speaks	———	———
14:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	2.0%	2.0%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	483
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	585
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	222.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	291.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	11.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	-84.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	-38.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	23.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	56.0K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 30, 2024

1. Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) (01:30 UTC): Monthly change in retail sales. Forecast: +0.5%, Previous: +0.1%.
2. ECB’s Schnabel Speaks (07:05 & 07:35 UTC): Remarks from Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, potentially providing insights into the ECB’s policy stance and economic outlook.
3. Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) (09:00 UTC): Annual change in the core consumer price index, excluding food and energy. Forecast: +2.8%, Previous: +2.9%.
4. Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Aug) (09:00 UTC): Monthly change in the consumer price index. Previous: 0.0%.
5. Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Aug) (09:00 UTC): Annual change in the consumer price index. Forecast: +2.2%, Previous: +2.6%.
6. Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Jul) (09:00 UTC): Percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Forecast: 6.5%, Previous: 6.5%.
7. Eurogroup Meetings (10:00 UTC): Meeting of Eurozone finance ministers to discuss economic policies and financial stability within the Eurozone.
8. US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul) (12:30 UTC): Monthly change in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, excluding food and energy. Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: +0.2%.
9. US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul) (12:30 UTC): Annual change in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. Forecast: +2.7%, Previous: +2.6%.
10. US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul) (12:30 UTC): Monthly change in the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: +0.1%.
11. US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul) (12:30 UTC): Annual change in the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. Forecast: +2.6%, Previous: +2.5%.
12. US Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul) (12:30 UTC): Monthly change in personal spending. Forecast: +0.5%, Previous: +0.3%.
13. US Chicago PMI (Aug) (13:45 UTC): Measures business conditions in the Chicago area. Forecast: 45.0, Previous: 45.3.
14. US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) (14:00 UTC): Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year. Previous: 2.9%.
15. US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) (14:00 UTC): Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next five years. Previous: 3.0%.
16. US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) (14:00 UTC): Consumers’ outlook on future economic conditions. Forecast: 72.1, Previous: 68.8.
17. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) (14:00 UTC): Overall measure of consumer confidence. Forecast: 67.8, Previous: 66.4.
18. ECB’s Supervisory Board Member Jochnick Speaks (14:00 UTC): Remarks from Kerstin Jochnick, potentially providing insights into the ECB’s supervisory approach and financial stability.
19. US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (14:30 UTC): Real-time estimate of US GDP growth for the third quarter. Previous: 2.0%.
20. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (17:00 UTC): Weekly count of active oil rigs in the US. Previous: 483.
21. US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC): Weekly count of total active rigs in the US. Previous: 585.
22. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, AUD, JPY, EUR) (19:30 UTC): Weekly data on speculative positions in various commodities and currencies, providing insight into market sentiment.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Retail Sales: An increase suggests strong consumer spending, supporting AUD; weaker sales could indicate economic caution.
• ECB Speeches and Eurogroup Meetings: Remarks from ECB officials and discussions during Eurogroup meetings can provide insights into future monetary policy, impacting EUR.
• Eurozone CPI and Unemployment Rate: Lower CPI suggests easing inflation pressures, impacting EUR; stable unemployment indicates a steady labor market.
• US Core PCE and Personal Spending: These are key indicators of inflation and consumer behavior. Higher PCE figures could increase expectations for Fed tightening, supporting USD. Strong personal spending indicates economic resilience.
• US Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment: Lower PMI suggests manufacturing sector challenges, potentially impacting USD and equities. Improving consumer sentiment supports market confidence.
• CFTC Speculative Net Positions: Reflects market sentiment; significant shifts could indicate potential volatility in commodities and currency markets.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: High, particularly due to key inflation and spending data from the US and ongoing ECB commentary.
• Impact Score: 7/10, indicating a high potential for market movements.