Upcoming economic events 3 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Sep)	53.9	53.7
01:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Aug)	5.510B	6.009B
01:30		2 points	BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks	———	———
03:35		2 points	10-Year JGB Auction	———	0.915%
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Sep)	48.9	51.0
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Sep)	50.5	52.9
11:30		2 points	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting	———	———
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———	1,834K
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	221K	218K
13:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep)	54.4	54.6
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)	55.4	55.7
14:00		2 points	Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug)	0.1%	5.0%
14:00		2 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep)	———	50.2
14:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	51.6	51.5
14:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep)	———	57.3
14:40		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———	———
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,080B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 3, 2024

1. au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
   A key measure of Japan’s services sector performance. Forecast: 53.9, Previous: 53.7. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
2. Australia Trade Balance (Aug) (01:30 UTC):
   The difference between exports and imports in Australia. Forecast: AUD 5.510B, Previous: AUD 6.009B. A higher surplus indicates strong export performance.
3. BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks (01:30 UTC):
   Bank of Japan Board Member Noguchi’s speech may provide insights into future monetary policy or economic outlook.
4. 10-Year JGB Auction (03:35 UTC):
   Auction for 10-year Japanese government bonds. Previous yield: 0.915%. Higher yields can signal increased borrowing costs or inflation expectations.
5. HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Sep) (08:00 UTC):
   A broad indicator of Eurozone business activity. Forecast: 48.9, Previous: 51.0. Readings below 50 signal contraction, indicating a weakening economy.
6. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Sep) (08:00 UTC):
   Tracks activity in the Eurozone services sector. Forecast: 50.5, Previous: 52.9. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in the services industry.
7. ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting (11:30 UTC):
   The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting, providing insights into potential future rate decisions.
8. US Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits. Previous: 1,834K. A rising number may suggest a weakening labor market.
9. US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks new claims for unemployment benefits. Forecast: 221K, Previous: 218K. A lower-than-expected reading signals labor market strength.
10. S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) (13:45 UTC):
    A composite index of business activity across US manufacturing and services sectors. Forecast: 54.4, Previous: 54.6. Above 50 indicates expansion.
11. S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) (13:45 UTC):
    Focuses on the US services sector. Forecast: 55.4, Previous: 55.7. Higher readings indicate ongoing expansion.
12. US Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) (14:00 UTC):
    Measures changes in new orders for manufactured goods. Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 5.0%. A drop may suggest a slowdown in manufacturing demand.
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
    Tracks employment trends in the US services sector. Previous: 50.2. A reading above 50 signals growth in employment.
14. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
    A key indicator of economic health in the US services sector. Forecast: 51.6, Previous: 51.5. A reading above 50 signals expansion.
15. ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
    Measures price pressures in the services sector. Previous: 57.3. A higher figure may indicate rising inflation.
16. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (14:40 UTC):
    Federal Reserve member Raphael Bostic’s speech could offer insights into future monetary policy, particularly concerning interest rates and inflation.
17. Fed’s Balance Sheet (20:30 UTC):
    The Federal Reserve’s weekly balance sheet update provides insights into its asset purchases and liquidity measures. Previous: $7,080B.

Market Impact Analysis

• Japan Services PMI & BoJ Speech:
  Positive PMI results could support the JPY, while any dovish signals from BoJ Member Noguchi may weaken it.
• Australia Trade Balance:
  A shrinking trade surplus could weigh on AUD, as it reflects weaker export performance.
• Eurozone PMIs:
  A lower-than-expected composite PMI may signal contraction in the Eurozone economy, weakening the EUR. Stronger service PMI data could partially offset this effect.
• US Jobless Claims:
  Fewer jobless claims would strengthen USD by indicating labor market resilience, while higher-than-expected claims could dampen sentiment.
• US PMIs and Factory Orders:
  Better-than-expected PMI or factory order data could boost USD, while weaker data may suggest slowing growth, potentially weighing on the currency.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Data:
  A stronger services PMI would support the USD, signaling growth in a critical sector of the economy. A weaker reading could introduce concerns about economic deceleration.
• FOMC Speech & Fed Balance Sheet:
  Hawkish comments from Bostic or contraction in the Fed’s balance sheet could strengthen USD, while dovish remarks may weaken it.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with key data releases from the US and Eurozone likely to cause movement in currencies and equity markets. Speeches from central bank officials add to potential swings.

Impact Score: 7/10, driven by critical US labor market data, Eurozone economic sentiment, and speeches from central bank officials that could influence market expectations.