Upcoming economic events 3 July 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jun)	51.5	51.5
01:30		2 points	Trade Balance (May)	5.080B	5.413B
01:45		2 points	Caixin Services PMI (Jun)	51.0	51.1
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jun)	50.2	50.2
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jun)	50.0	50.0
11:30		2 points	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting	———-	———-
12:30		2 points	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jun)	———-	3.9%
12:30		2 points	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)	0.3%	0.4%
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———-	1,974K
12:30		2 points	Exports (May)	———-	289.40B
12:30		2 points	Imports (May)	———-	351.00B
12:30		2 points	Initial Jobless Claims	239K	236K
12:30		2 points	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)	120K	139K
12:30		2 points	Participation Rate (Jun)	———-	62.4%
12:30		2 points	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)	———-	140K
12:30		2 points	Trade Balance (May)	-69.60B	-61.60B
12:30		2 points	U6 Unemployment Rate (Jun)	———-	7.8%
12:30		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Jun)	4.3%	4.2%
13:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun)	52.8	52.8
13:45		2 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)	53.1	53.1
14:00		2 points	Factory Orders (MoM) (May)	7.9%	-3.7%
14:00		2 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jun)	———-	50.7
14:00		2 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	50.8	49.9
14:00		2 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun)	———-	68.7
15:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———-	———-
17:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	2.5%	2.5%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	432
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	547
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (MoM) (May)	0.4%	-1.8%
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (YoY) (May)	1.3%	-0.1%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 3, 2025

Asia – Japan, Australia & China

au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jun) – 00:30 UTC

• Expected: 51.5 (previous 51.5)
• Impact: A stable reading signals steady services activity in Japan; neutral for JPY unless surprise deviation.

Australia Trade Balance (May) – 01:30 UTC

• Expected: 5.08B (previous 5.413B)
• Impact: Lower trade surplus could weaken AUD slightly; key for export-driven economic outlook.

Caixin Services PMI (Jun) – 01:45 UTC

• Expected: 51.0 (previous 51.1)
• Impact: Slight moderation expected; remains in expansion zone. Supports CNY and broader risk sentiment.

Japan Household Spending (MoM) (May) – 23:30 UTC

• Expected: 0.4% (previous –1.8%)
• Impact: A rebound indicates stronger consumer activity, supportive for domestic recovery outlook and JPY.

Japan Household Spending (YoY) (May) – 23:30 UTC

• Expected: 1.3% (previous –0.1%)
• Impact: Higher annual consumption suggests stabilizing demand conditions.

Europe – ECB & PMI Data

HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jun) – 08:00 UTC

• Expected: 50.2 (same as previous)
• Impact: Maintains neutral growth signal; keeps EUR steady unless unexpected change.

HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jun) – 08:00 UTC

• Expected: 50.0 (same as previous)
• Impact: Signals stagnation in services activity; dovish if persistent, reinforcing cautious ECB stance.

ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting – 11:30 UTC

• Impact: May reveal internal debate on policy path; dovish tone could weigh on EUR and eurozone yields.

United States – Labor, PMI, Trade & Fed Commentary

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: 120K (previous 139K)
• Impact: Weak hiring could revive rate-cut bets; miss below 100K may trigger USD downside.

Unemployment Rate (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: 4.3% (previous 4.2%)
• Impact: Slight uptick would affirm softer labor trends; supportive of dovish Fed expectations.

Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: 239K (previous 236K)
• Impact: Modest increase reflects gradually softening labor market; reinforces rate cut bias.

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: 0.3% (previous 0.4%)
• Impact: Slower wage growth eases inflation pressure, dovish signal for Fed.

Trade Balance (May) – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: –69.60B (previous –61.60B)
• Impact: Wider deficit may slightly weigh on GDP expectations; limited market impact unless large surprise.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – 14:00 UTC

• Expected: 50.8 (previous 49.9)
• Impact: Return to expansion zone supports soft landing narrative; bullish if sustained.

Factory Orders (MoM) (May) – 14:00 UTC

• Expected: 7.9% (previous –3.7%)
• Impact: Strong recovery boosts business investment sentiment; supports equity momentum.

S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) – 13:45 UTC

• Expected: 53.1 (same as previous)
• Impact: Steady expansion; confirms resilience in the services sector.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC

• Expected: 2.5% (same)
• Impact: Steady growth projection keeps Fed in data-dependent mode; neutral unless major revision.

FOMC Member Bostic Speaks – 15:00 UTC

• Impact: May offer insight into Fed’s bias on rate cuts; market will scrutinize tone.

Commodity & Energy

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count – 17:00 UTC

• Previous: 432
• Impact: Lower rig count supports oil prices; affects energy sector sentiment.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – N/A

• Previous draw: –4.277M
• Impact: Continued draws may sustain oil price uptrend; inflationary tilt if sustained.

Market Impact Analysis

• U.S. labor data dominates, with nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and earnings shaping Fed policy outlook.
• Eurozone services PMIs and ECB minutes set the tone for EUR and bond direction.
• Asian data (China PMI, Australia trade) adds context to global demand and commodity trends.
• Oil inventories and rig counts guide energy inflation expectations.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

Key Watchpoints:

• U.S. jobs and wage data – pivotal for short-term Fed rate policy expectations.
• Eurozone PMI & ECB minutes – will steer EUR sentiment.
• China PMI & Australia trade – early indicators for commodity and growth sensitivity.
• ISM services and factory orders – critical for confirming U.S. economic resilience.