Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 15:00 |  | 2 points | ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) | ———- | 48.1 |
| 15:00 | | 3 points | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 48.3 | 48.4 |
| 15:00 | | 3 points | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec) | 50.5 | 50.3 |
| 16:00 |  | 2 points | ECB’s Lane Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) | ———- | ———- |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | ———- | 483 |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | ———- | 589 |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 3, 2025
- US ISM Manufacturing Data (15:00 UTC):
- ISM Manufacturing Employment: Previous: 48.1.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 48.3, Previous: 48.4.
- ISM Manufacturing Prices: Forecast: 50.5, Previous: 50.3.
The ISM reports provide insights into the health of the US manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. Employment and prices components provide further details on hiring trends and inflationary pressures.
- ECB’s Lane Speaks (16:00 UTC):
- Commentary from Philip Lane, ECB Chief Economist, may provide insights into Eurozone monetary policy and inflation outlook. Markets will look for guidance on interest rates and economic recovery.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (18:00 UTC):
- Tracks real-time GDP growth estimates for Q4. Stable or improving estimates support USD strength, while declines could indicate slowing economic momentum.
- US Baker Hughes Rig Count (18:00 UTC):
- Oil Rig Count: Previous: 483.
- Total Rig Count: Previous: 589.
Tracks the number of active drilling rigs in the US, an indicator of energy sector activity. Increases suggest higher production levels, which can influence oil prices.
Market Impact Analysis
- US ISM Manufacturing Data:
- Positive Scenario: Readings above forecasts or stabilizing near 50 indicate resilience in the manufacturing sector, supporting the USD.
- Negative Scenario: Weak data would weigh on the USD by signaling persistent manufacturing challenges.
- ECB Commentary:
- Lane’s remarks could impact the EUR, particularly if he hints at changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance. Hawkish tones would strengthen the EUR, while dovish tones could weaken it.
- Baker Hughes Rig Count:
- Higher rig counts suggest rising US production, potentially pressuring oil prices. Declines may support oil prices, benefiting commodity-linked currencies.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow:
- Stable or improving growth forecasts bolster the USD, while downward revisions could signal weaker economic momentum.
Overall Impact
Volatility: Moderate, with key drivers being US manufacturing data and commentary from ECB’s Lane.
Impact Score: 6/10, as the ISM data and GDPNow forecast could shape short-term USD sentiment, while ECB commentary influences EUR trends.
