Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Goods Trade Balance (Sep) | -96.10B | -94.22B |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) | ——— | 0.5% |
| 13:00 | | 2 points | S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug) | ——— | 0.0% |
| 13:00 | | 2 points | S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Aug) | 4.6% | 5.9% |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) | 99.2 | 98.7 |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) | 7.920M | 8.040M |
| 14:30 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | 7-Year Note Auction | ——— | 3.668% |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ——— | 1.643M |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 29, 2024
- US Goods Trade Balance (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
Tracks the difference between exports and imports of goods. Forecast: -$96.10B, Previous: -$94.22B. A widening deficit would indicate increased import activity relative to exports, potentially weighing on the USD. - US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
Measures the change in retail inventories, excluding autos. Previous: 0.5%. A higher reading indicates increased stockpiling, which can suggest weaker demand or supply chain issues. - S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug) (13:00 UTC):
Tracks month-over-month changes in home prices across 20 major cities. Previous: 0.0%. Any increase would signal continued housing demand, while a decline may suggest a cooling market. - S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Aug) (13:00 UTC):
Year-over-year change in home prices. Forecast: 4.6%, Previous: 5.9%. A lower rate of growth may indicate moderating housing market conditions. - US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
Measures consumer confidence levels. Forecast: 99.2, Previous: 98.7. Higher confidence would suggest consumers are optimistic about the economy, supporting the USD. - US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
Tracks the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand. Forecast: 7.920M, Previous: 8.040M. Fewer job openings may signal a cooling labor market. - Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (14:30 UTC):
Real-time estimate of Q3 US GDP growth. Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.3%. No change expected, but any update could influence expectations for economic performance. - US 7-Year Note Auction (17:00 UTC):
The Treasury auctions 7-year notes. Previous yield: 3.668%. Rising yields suggest higher borrowing costs and inflation expectations, supporting the USD. - API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30 UTC):
Measures weekly changes in crude oil inventories. Previous: 1.643M. A large drawdown in stocks would indicate stronger demand, supporting oil prices, while a build could weigh on prices.
Market Impact Analysis
- US Goods Trade Balance:
A larger trade deficit would indicate higher import activity relative to exports, potentially weakening the USD. A narrower deficit would support the dollar by suggesting stronger export performance. - US Retail Inventories Ex Auto:
Rising inventories suggest businesses are stockpiling, possibly due to weaker consumer demand. This could weigh on the USD as it signals potential economic slowdown. - S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 (MoM & YoY):
Lower year-over-year price increases would suggest a cooling housing market, while stronger numbers would indicate continued demand, supporting the USD. - US CB Consumer Confidence & JOLTS Job Openings:
Higher consumer confidence signals optimism and can boost the USD, while a decline in job openings would suggest a softening labor market, potentially weakening the USD. - US 7-Year Note Auction:
Higher yields would support the USD, indicating stronger inflation expectations or risk premiums, which attract foreign investment. - API Weekly Crude Oil Stock:
A larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories would signal strong demand, potentially boosting oil prices. A build in inventories would indicate weaker demand, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
Overall Impact
Volatility:
Moderate, with significant attention on consumer confidence, housing data, and labor market indicators. Oil market dynamics will also contribute to potential price movements.
Impact Score: 6/10, driven by the combination of consumer confidence, trade data, and job openings that could shape expectations for economic health and monetary policy.
