Upcoming economic events 29 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
12:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (Sep)	-96.10B	-94.22B
12:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep)	———	0.5%
13:00		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug)	———	0.0%
13:00		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Aug)	4.6%	5.9%
14:00		3 points	CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)	99.2	98.7
14:00		3 points	JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)	7.920M	8.040M
14:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow	3.3%	3.3%
17:00		2 points	7-Year Note Auction	———	3.668%
20:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	1.643M

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 29, 2024

1. US Goods Trade Balance (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks the difference between exports and imports of goods. Forecast: -$96.10B, Previous: -$94.22B. A widening deficit would indicate increased import activity relative to exports, potentially weighing on the USD.
2. US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the change in retail inventories, excluding autos. Previous: 0.5%. A higher reading indicates increased stockpiling, which can suggest weaker demand or supply chain issues.
3. S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug) (13:00 UTC):
   Tracks month-over-month changes in home prices across 20 major cities. Previous: 0.0%. Any increase would signal continued housing demand, while a decline may suggest a cooling market.
4. S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Aug) (13:00 UTC):
   Year-over-year change in home prices. Forecast: 4.6%, Previous: 5.9%. A lower rate of growth may indicate moderating housing market conditions.
5. US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Measures consumer confidence levels. Forecast: 99.2, Previous: 98.7. Higher confidence would suggest consumers are optimistic about the economy, supporting the USD.
6. US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
   Tracks the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand. Forecast: 7.920M, Previous: 8.040M. Fewer job openings may signal a cooling labor market.
7. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (14:30 UTC):
   Real-time estimate of Q3 US GDP growth. Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.3%. No change expected, but any update could influence expectations for economic performance.
8. US 7-Year Note Auction (17:00 UTC):
   The Treasury auctions 7-year notes. Previous yield: 3.668%. Rising yields suggest higher borrowing costs and inflation expectations, supporting the USD.
9. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30 UTC):
   Measures weekly changes in crude oil inventories. Previous: 1.643M. A large drawdown in stocks would indicate stronger demand, supporting oil prices, while a build could weigh on prices.

Market Impact Analysis

• US Goods Trade Balance:
  A larger trade deficit would indicate higher import activity relative to exports, potentially weakening the USD. A narrower deficit would support the dollar by suggesting stronger export performance.
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto:
  Rising inventories suggest businesses are stockpiling, possibly due to weaker consumer demand. This could weigh on the USD as it signals potential economic slowdown.
• S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 (MoM & YoY):
  Lower year-over-year price increases would suggest a cooling housing market, while stronger numbers would indicate continued demand, supporting the USD.
• US CB Consumer Confidence & JOLTS Job Openings:
  Higher consumer confidence signals optimism and can boost the USD, while a decline in job openings would suggest a softening labor market, potentially weakening the USD.
• US 7-Year Note Auction:
  Higher yields would support the USD, indicating stronger inflation expectations or risk premiums, which attract foreign investment.
• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock:
  A larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories would signal strong demand, potentially boosting oil prices. A build in inventories would indicate weaker demand, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with significant attention on consumer confidence, housing data, and labor market indicators. Oil market dynamics will also contribute to potential price movements.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by the combination of consumer confidence, trade data, and job openings that could shape expectations for economic health and monetary policy.