Upcoming economic events 29 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
10:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)	2.8%	2.7%
10:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Nov)	———	0.3%
10:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Nov)	2.3%	2.0%
11:30		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———	———
14:45		3 points	Chicago PMI (Nov)	44.9	41.6
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	193.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	234.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	19.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	34.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	31.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	-46.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	-42.6K
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	6,924B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 29, 2024

1. Eurozone CPI Data (Nov) (10:00 UTC):
   • Core CPI (YoY): Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 2.7%.
   • CPI (MoM): Previous: 0.3%.
   • CPI (YoY): Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 2.0%.
     Rising inflation figures would indicate persistent price pressures, supporting the EUR by reinforcing expectations for continued ECB tightening. Lower readings could weigh on the EUR, suggesting easing inflationary trends.
2. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (11:30 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos may offer insights into the ECB’s inflation outlook and monetary policy. Hawkish tones would support the EUR, while dovish remarks could soften the currency.
3. US Chicago PMI (Nov) (14:45 UTC):
   • Forecast: 44.9, Previous: 41.6.
     A reading below 50 signals contraction in manufacturing activity. Improvement would suggest recovery in the sector, supporting the USD. A weaker result may weigh on the currency.
4. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
   • Tracks speculative sentiment in crude oil, gold, equities, and major currencies.
     Changes in net positions provide insights into market sentiment and trends, influencing commodity, equity, and FX markets.
5. Fed’s Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC):
   Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Changes in the balance sheet could indicate adjustments in monetary policy tools, influencing USD sentiment.

Market Impact Analysis

• Eurozone CPI Data & ECB De Guindos Speech:
  Higher inflation figures or hawkish comments from De Guindos would support the EUR, signaling persistent price pressures and potential for further ECB tightening. Lower CPI readings or dovish remarks may weigh on the EUR.
• US Chicago PMI:
  An improvement in manufacturing activity would suggest resilience in the US economy, supporting the USD. Further contraction would signal continued challenges in the sector, softening the currency.
• CFTC Speculative Positions:
  Changes in speculative positions reflect market sentiment. For example, increasing crude oil speculative positions suggest rising demand expectations, potentially supporting oil prices.
• Fed’s Balance Sheet:
  Significant changes in the balance sheet could influence expectations for quantitative easing or tightening, impacting USD sentiment.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with the Eurozone inflation data and US Chicago PMI driving key market movements. Speculative positioning and the Fed’s balance sheet provide additional insights into market sentiment.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by critical inflation data from the Eurozone, US manufacturing activity, and central bank insights influencing the EUR and USD.