Upcoming economic events 29 May 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1)	0.5%	-0.2%
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,900K	1,903K
12:30		2 points	Core PCE Prices (Q1)	3.50%	2.60%
12:30		3 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)	-0.3%	2.4%
12:30		2 points	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)	3.7%	2.3%
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	229K	227K
14:00		2 points	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)	-0.9%	6.1%
16:00		2 points	7-Year Note Auction	———-	4.123%
16:00		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———-	1.328M
16:00		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———-	-0.457M
20:00		2 points	FOMC Member Daly Speaks	———-	———-
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,689B
23:30		2 points	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (May)	3.5%	3.4%
23:50		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)	-1.4%	0.2%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on May 29, 2025

Australia

1. Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1) – 01:30 UTC

• Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.2%
• Market Impact:
  • A rebound in capex suggests improved business investment confidence, which may support AUD.
  • Weak data could pressure the AUD and signal economic softness.

United States

2. Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 1,900K | Previous: 1,903K

3. Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 229K | Previous: 227K
• Market Impact:
  • A slight uptick could reflect a cooling labor market, possibly supporting dovish Fed expectations.

4. Core PCE Prices (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 3.50% | Previous: 2.60%
• Market Impact:
  • A higher inflation reading would reinforce hawkish Fed expectations, potentially lifting USD and yields.

5. GDP (QoQ) (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: +2.4%
• Market Impact:
  • A contraction would be a significant negative shock, likely weighing on equities and boosting bond demand.

6. GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 3.7% | Previous: 2.3%
• Market Impact:
  • Suggests rising inflationary pressures, supporting a more cautious Fed stance.

7. Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) – 14:00 UTC

• Forecast: -0.9% | Previous: +6.1%
• Market Impact:
  • A slowdown could reflect housing market fatigue due to rate levels, potentially pressuring housing stocks.

8. 7-Year Note Auction – 16:00 UTC

• Previous Yield: 4.123%
• Market Impact:
  • Auction strength will indicate confidence in mid-term fiscal outlook; weak demand may raise yields.

9. Crude Oil Inventories – 16:00 UTC

• Previous: +1.328M

10. Cushing Crude Oil Inventories – 16:00 UTC

• Previous: -0.457M
• Market Impact:
  • A drawdown supports higher prices; an inventory build may pressure crude prices, impacting inflation outlook.

11. FOMC Member Daly Speaks – 20:00 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Key insights into the Fed’s inflation outlook and policy direction.

12. Fed’s Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC

• Previous: $6.689T
• Market Impact:
  • Shrinking balance sheet implies tightening liquidity, influencing equity and bond valuations.

Japan

13. Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (May) – 23:30 UTC

• Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.4%
• Market Impact:
  • Rising CPI may strengthen JPY on expectations of less accommodative BoJ policy.

14. Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) – 23:50 UTC

• Forecast: -1.4% | Previous: +0.2%
• Market Impact:
  • A significant decline would be negative for the yen and equities, signaling slower output growth.

Market Impact Analysis

• The U.S. economic release window at 12:30 UTC is highly critical. The combination of GDP contraction and higher PCE inflation would create a policy dilemma for the Fed, likely sparking volatility in USD, Treasuries, and equities.
• Japan’s CPI and industrial data will impact JPY direction going into the Asia-Pacific session.
• Oil inventory data and note auctions could shift commodity and bond markets in the late U.S. session.

Overall Impact Score: 9/10

Key Focus:
This is a high-stakes session dominated by critical U.S. macroeconomic indicators, including Q1 GDP, core PCE, and labor market data. The combination of potential economic contraction and inflation pressures could heavily influence Fed policy expectations, making this day one of the most market-sensitive in the week. Expect elevated volatility across all major asset classes.