Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Goods Trade Balance (Jun) | -98.30B | -96.59B |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun) | ———- | 0.2% |
| 13:00 | | 2 points | S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (May) | ———- | 0.8% |
| 13:00 | | 2 points | S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (May) | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 95.9 | 93.0 |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) | 7.490M | 7.769M |
| 15:30 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 16:00 | | 2 points | 7-Year Note Auction | ———- | 4.022% |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ———- | -0.577M |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 29, 2025
United States – Trade, Housing, Confidence & Labor Data
Goods Trade Balance (Jun) – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast: –$98.30 B (previous –$96.59 B)
- Impact: A widening deficit poses a drag on GDP and could weigh on USD, especially if imports outpace exports unexpectedly.
Retail Inventories Ex Autos (Jun) – 12:30 UTC
- Previous: +0.2%
- Impact: Rising inventories point to slowing retail demand, potentially fueling concern over consumer strength.
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20‑City (May)
- YoY Estimate: ~2.9% (prev 3.4%)
- MoM Estimate: ~0.8%
- Impact: Slowing home price gains may cool housing sentiment and limit housing-related equities, while helping contain inflation.
CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) – 14:00 UTC
- Forecast: 95.9 (previous 93.0)
- Impact: A rebound in confidence would support consumer spending outlook, buoy equities, and strengthen USD; underperformance raises caution Investing.com+7Investing.com India+7Investing.com+7Investing.com.
JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) – 14:00 UTC
- Forecast: ~7.55M (previous 7.769M)
- Impact: A drop from 7.77M suggests slight cooling in labor demand. A number above forecast would be USD‑positive, while a sharp decline indicates softening labor trends advisorperspectives.com+5Investing.com+5AInvest+5.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 15:30 UTC
- Forecast: 2.4% (previous unchanged)
- Impact: Confirms stable moderate growth, supportive of current risk sentiment and providing context for Fed policy outlook.
7‑Year Note Auction – 16:00 UTC
- Previous Yield: ~4.022%
- Impact: Demand for intermediate-term debt affects interest rate outlook; weak demand could raise Treasury yields and pressure equities.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks – 20:30 UTC
- Previous: –0.577M (draw)
- Impact: Continued draw supports oil prices; a surprise build could depress energy markets and inflation expectations.
Market Impact Analysis
This set of releases brings a balanced mix of labor, sentiment, housing, and trade data—each with potential directional impact:
- Labor market strength assessed via JOLTS will inform Fed rate-cut expectations.
- Consumer confidence recovery could signal resilience in consumption, supporting risk assets.
- Housing and inventories data offer guidance on the strength of consumer spending ahead.
- Treasury auction and oil inventory data provide yield and inflation signals that may affect both bond markets and energy-linked equities.
Overall Impact Score: 8/10
Key Watchpoints
- Consumer Confidence (CB): Upside surprise supports equities/ USD; downside may stoke recession fears.
- JOLTS vs forecast (7.55M): Higher readings boost USD; lower open‑ings may reinforce dovish Fed expectations.
- Retail inventories: Continued buildup suggests weakening demand and potential inventory overhang in retail.
- Housing metrics (HPI & trade): Slower home-price growth and wider trade deficit may undermine GDP momentum.
