Upcoming economic events 29 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Q4)	2.5%	2.8%
00:30		2 points	CPI (QoQ) (Q4)	0.3%	0.2%
00:30		2 points	Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q4)	0.6%	0.8%
13:15		2 points	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	———-	———-
13:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (Dec)	-105.30B	-103.50B
13:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec)	———-	0.5%
13:45		3 points	ECB Press Conference	———-	———-
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	———-	———-
15:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	3.700M	-1.017M
15:30		2 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———-	-0.148M
19:00		3 points	FOMC Statement	———-	———-
19:00		3 points	Fed Interest Rate Decision	4.50%	4.50%
19:30		3 points	FOMC Press Conference	———-	———-

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 29, 2025

Australia (🇦🇺)

1. CPI (YoY) (Q4)(00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.8%.
   • Indicates annual inflation trends. A decline may suggest reduced inflationary pressures, influencing RBA policy decisions.
2. CPI (QoQ) (Q4)(00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%.
   • Tracks quarterly inflation; a modest rise would align with the annual decline, maintaining a balanced inflation outlook.
3. Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q4)(00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.8%.
   • Strips out volatile items, giving a clearer view of underlying inflation. A lower reading signals subdued inflation.

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

4. ECB Monetary Policy Statement(13:15 UTC):
   • Commentary on inflation, growth, and future rate decisions. Hawkish tones may support the EUR, while dovish comments could pressure it.
5. ECB Press Conference(13:45 UTC):
   • President Lagarde’s remarks will be closely watched for details on the ECB’s inflation-fighting strategy or concerns about slowing growth.

United States (🇺🇸)

6. Goods Trade Balance (Dec)(13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: -$105.30B, Previous: -$103.50B.
   • A widening deficit may signal increased reliance on imports, which could pressure GDP growth figures.
7. Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec)(13:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 0.5%.
   • Tracks inventory levels, reflecting retailer expectations for future demand.
8. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)(15:30 UTC):
   • A real-time estimate of U.S. GDP growth. A substantial change could influence market sentiment.
9. Crude Oil Inventories(15:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: +3.700M, Previous: -1.017M.
   • Rising inventories could weigh on crude oil prices, while a surprise drawdown may provide a boost.
10. FOMC Statement(19:00 UTC):
    • The Federal Reserve’s outlook on the economy, inflation, and interest rates. Any deviation from current expectations could trigger market volatility.
11. Fed Interest Rate Decision(19:00 UTC):
    • Forecast: 4.50%, Previous: 4.50%.
    • Rates are expected to hold steady, but forward guidance on future rate hikes or cuts will be critical.
12. FOMC Press Conference(19:30 UTC):
    • Fed Chair Powell’s comments will provide further insights into the Fed’s economic outlook and rate path.

Market Impact Analysis

AUD:

• CPI Data: A lower-than-expected CPI may weaken the AUD as it suggests the RBA could maintain a dovish stance. Stronger inflation would bolster expectations for a tighter monetary policy, supporting the AUD.

EUR:

• ECB Monetary Policy & Press Conference:
  • A hawkish tone from Lagarde may boost the EUR, particularly if the ECB signals further rate hikes. Conversely, concerns about slower growth or hints at policy easing would weigh on the currency.

USD:

• FOMC Decision & Press Conference:
  • Markets anticipate a pause at 4.50%. Any hawkish surprises or discussions about future hikes could strengthen the USD. Dovish guidance may lead to dollar weakness.
• Goods Trade Balance: A widening deficit could dampen optimism about U.S. GDP growth.
• Crude Oil Inventories: Oil prices are sensitive to inventory changes; a surprise drawdown could signal increased demand and support energy-related assets.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: High (due to FOMC and ECB events).
• Impact Score: 9/10 – Central bank statements (FOMC, ECB) dominate the calendar, likely driving significant market movements across major currencies and asset classes.