Upcoming economic events 29 August  2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
09:00		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)	0.3%	0.3%
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)	2.9%	2.8%
12:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (Jul)	-90.20B	-84.85B
12:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Jul)	2.6%	2.6%
12:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Jul)	0.2%	0.3%
12:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)	0.5%	0.3%
12:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul)	———-	-0.1%
13:45		3 points	Chicago PMI (Aug)	46.6	47.1
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug)	4.9%	4.9%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug)	3.9%	3.4%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug)	57.2	57.7
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)	58.6	61.7
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	2.2%	2.2%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	411
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	538
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	120.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	212.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	33.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-171.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-94.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	77.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	118.7K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 29, 2025

Europe – ECB

ECB’s De Guindos Speaks – 09:00 UTC

• Impact: Markets will monitor for commentary on inflation persistence or monetary policy direction. Hawkish tones could strengthen the euro; dovish remarks may pressure it.

United States – Inflation, Growth & Sentiment Data

Core PCE Price Index (MoM, Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +0.3% (Prev.: +0.3%)

Core PCE Price Index (YoY, Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 2.9% (Prev.: 2.8%)

PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY, Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• MoM Forecast: +0.2% (Prev.: +0.3%)
• YoY Forecast: +2.6% (Prev.: +2.6%)
• Impact: PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
  • A steady 0.3% core MoM keeps inflation sticky, possibly delaying rate cuts.
  • Any downside surprise would ease pressure on the Fed and boost equities.

Goods Trade Balance (Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: -$90.2B (Prev.: -$84.85B)
• Impact: A wider deficit suggests stronger imports, potentially weighing on GDP expectations and USD.

Personal Spending (MoM, Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +0.5% (Prev.: +0.3%)
• Impact: Strong spending supports growth momentum but may sustain inflation concerns.

Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Prev.: -0.1%
• Impact: Offers insight into stock levels; declining inventories suggest firms expect weaker demand.

Chicago PMI (Aug) – 13:45 UTC

• Forecast: 46.6 (Prev.: 47.1)
• Impact: A sub-50 reading signals ongoing contraction in Midwest manufacturing, bearish for USD and equities if weaker than expected.

Michigan Consumer Data (Aug) – 14:00 UTC

• 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.9% (unchanged)
• 5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.9% (Prev.: 3.4%)
• Consumer Expectations: 57.2 (Prev.: 57.7)
• Consumer Sentiment: 58.6 (Prev.: 61.7)
• Impact: Higher long-term inflation expectations may unsettle bond markets. Weakening sentiment points to slowing household confidence, weighing on growth outlook.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – 15:30 UTC

• Forecast: 2.2% (unchanged)
• Impact: Steady projection signals moderate growth; strong revisions higher would support USD.

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count – 17:00 UTC

• Prev.: 411 rigs
• Impact: Lower rig counts typically support oil prices, influencing energy equities and inflation-linked assets.

CFTC Positioning – 19:30 UTC

• Crude Oil net longs: 120.2K
• Gold net longs: 212.6K
• Nasdaq 100 net longs: 33.8K
• S&P 500 net shorts: -171.5K
• AUD net shorts: -94.9K
• JPY net longs: 77.6K
• EUR net longs: 118.7K
• Impact: Positioning data provides sentiment cues. Strong gold and EUR longs suggest markets hedge against USD strength, while persistent equity shorts reflect cautious risk appetite.

Market Impact Analysis

• Europe: ECB’s De Guindos could spark short-term EUR moves depending on tone.
• U.S.: Heavy data focus with Core PCE, Personal Spending, and Michigan expectations in the spotlight. If PCE stays hot and long-term inflation expectations rise, Fed rate cuts may be delayed, lifting USD but weighing on equities.
• Energy: Rig count and CFTC positioning add volatility for oil prices.
• Overall Risk: Market sensitivity will be high to inflation and consumer confidence signals.

Overall Impact Score: 9/10

• Why: With Fed’s key inflation gauge (Core PCE), consumer confidence, and trade data all in play, this session could set the tone for Fed policy expectations into September.