Upcoming economic events 28 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3)	0.9%	-2.2%
13:00		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———
23:30		2 points	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)	2.0%	1.8%
23:50		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)	3.8%	1.6%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 28, 2024

1. Australia Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: -2.2%.
     Measures quarterly changes in business investments in Australia. Positive results would signal growing business confidence and economic resilience, supporting the AUD. A weaker figure could weigh on the currency.
2. ECB Speeches (Elderson & Lane) (13:00 & 17:00 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Executive Board Members Frank Elderson and Philip Lane may provide insights into the Eurozone’s monetary policy and inflation outlook. Hawkish comments would support the EUR, while dovish remarks may weaken it.
3. Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) (23:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.8%.
     A key measure of inflation in Tokyo. Higher-than-expected inflation would suggest increasing price pressures, supporting the JPY by fueling speculation of potential policy adjustments by the BoJ. Lower readings could weigh on the currency.
4. Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) (23:50 UTC):
   • Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 1.6%.
     Indicates changes in Japan’s manufacturing output. Strong growth would signal recovery in industrial activity, supporting the JPY. Weak data would suggest economic slowing, potentially weighing on the currency.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Private Capital Expenditure:
  A rebound in business investment would signal confidence in economic prospects, supporting the AUD. Continued contraction would highlight challenges, potentially weakening the currency.
• ECB Speeches:
  Hawkish remarks from Elderson or Lane emphasizing inflation risks would support the EUR by reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening. Dovish tones could suggest caution, weighing on the EUR.
• Japan Tokyo Core CPI:
  Higher-than-expected inflation would indicate persistent price pressures, potentially prompting the BoJ to reassess its ultra-loose policy, supporting the JPY. Lower inflation would reinforce dovish expectations, softening the currency.
• Japan Industrial Production:
  Strong industrial growth would signal economic recovery and resilience in Japan’s manufacturing sector, supporting the JPY. Weak figures may indicate challenges, potentially weighing on the currency.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with focus on Australian capital expenditure data, ECB speeches, and key Japanese economic indicators (inflation and industrial production).

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by the interplay of business investment trends in Australia, ECB policy insights, and Japan’s inflation and production data shaping short-term sentiment for the AUD, EUR, and JPY.