Upcoming economic events 28 March 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
08:30		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb)	0.3%	0.3%
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb)	2.7%	2.6%
12:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Feb)	2.5%	2.5%
12:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Feb)	0.3%	0.3%
12:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb)	0.5%	-0.2%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar)	4.9%	4.3%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar)	3.9%	3.5%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar)	54.2	54.2
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)	57.9	64.7
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)	-1.8%	-1.8%
16:15		2 points	Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks	———-	———-
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	486
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	593
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	166.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	23.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	68.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-70.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	123.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	59.4K
19:45		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———-	———-
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	257.9K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on March 28, 2025

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

1. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (08:30 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • Remarks from the ECB Vice-President could offer insight into inflation outlook or rate trajectory.
     • Hawkish tones may strengthen the euro (EUR), while dovish commentary may weaken it.

United States (🇺🇸)

2. Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast (MoM): 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
   • Forecast (YoY): 2.7% | Previous: 2.6%
   • Market Impact:
     • The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
     • Any upside surprise could raise rate hike expectations, boosting the U.S. dollar (USD).
     • Lower-than-expected results may ease policy concerns, weakening the USD.
3. PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast (MoM): 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
   • Forecast (YoY): 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
   • Market Impact:
     • Confirms consumer price trends across the economy.
     • Closely watched for inflation insights; same impact dynamics as Core PCE.
4. Personal Spending (MoM) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.2%
   • Market Impact:
     • Key consumer activity measure.
     • Growth supports USD and equities; a decline could raise economic concerns.
5. University of Michigan Reports (14:00 UTC)
   • 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Forecast: 4.9% | Previous: 4.3%
   • 5-Year Inflation Expectations: Forecast: 3.9% | Previous: 3.5%
   • Consumer Expectations & Sentiment: Sentiment Forecast: 57.9 | Previous: 64.7
   • Market Impact:
     • Rising inflation expectations could drive bond yields and strengthen USD.
     • Weak sentiment may weigh on consumer spending outlook and risk assets.
6. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (15:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: -1.8%
   • Market Impact:
     • A key real-time GDP tracker.
     • Decline may hurt risk sentiment; stable or better data may ease growth fears.
7. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (16:15 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • Comments on financial stability or rate policy may influence markets, particularly banking stocks and USD.
8. U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Counts (17:00 UTC)
   • Oil Rig Count Previous: 486
   • Total Rig Count Previous: 593
   • Market Impact:
     • Falling rig counts may support oil prices; rising counts imply increased supply.
9. CFTC Speculative Net Positioning Reports (19:30 UTC)
   • Crude Oil: Previous: 166.8K
   • Nasdaq 100: Previous: 23.0K
   • S&P 500: Previous: 68.3K
   • AUD: Previous: -70.4K
   • JPY: Previous: 123.0K
   • EUR: Previous: 59.4K
   • Gold (20:30 UTC): Previous: 257.9K
   • Market Impact:
     • Shifts in speculative positioning can signal upcoming volatility.
     • Rising bullish sentiment in gold or crude oil may lead to price spikes.
10. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (19:45 UTC)
    • Market Impact:
      • Market will watch for forward guidance on interest rate policy.

Market Impact Analysis

• USD: Core PCE and inflation expectations are key. Strong inflation data could push yields higher.
• EUR: ECB commentary may slightly influence direction, though secondary to U.S. data.
• JPY/AUD/EUR: Watch speculative positioning for sentiment shifts.
• Gold/Oil: CFTC reports and rig count will influence commodity market sentiment.

Overall Impact Score: 7/10

Key Focus: U.S. inflation readings and consumer sentiment, alongside speculative positioning across key asset classes.