Upcoming economic events 28 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	NAB Business Confidence (Dec)	———-	-3
05:00		2 points	BoJ Core CPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%
13:30		2 points	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)	0.3%	-0.2%
13:30		3 points	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)	0.1%	-1.2%
14:00		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Nov)	4.2%	4.2%
14:00		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Nov)	———-	-0.2%
15:00		3 points	CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)	105.9	104.7
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	-8.0%	3.0%
17:00		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
18:00		2 points	7-Year Note Auction	———-	4.532%
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———-	1.000M
23:50		2 points	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes	———-	———-

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 28, 2025

Australia (🇦🇺)

1. NAB Business Confidence (Dec)(00:30 UTC):
   • Previous: -3.
   • A measure of business sentiment. An increase could signal improving economic conditions.

Japan (🇯🇵)

2. BoJ Core CPI (YoY)(05:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1.7%, Previous: 1.7%.
   • Monitors inflation trends excluding fresh food prices. Stability at this level suggests mild inflation, aligned with BoJ policy objectives.
3. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes(23:50 UTC):
   • Details from the BoJ’s last policy meeting, providing insights into potential changes in monetary policy or economic outlook.

United States (🇺🇸)

4. Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)(13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: +0.3%, Previous: -0.2%.
   • Excludes transportation items; gauges underlying strength in manufacturing. Positive growth could support optimism in U.S. industrial production.
5. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)(13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: +0.1%, Previous: -1.2%.
   • Includes all goods; a rebound would suggest improving demand for U.S. manufactured goods.
6. S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY)(14:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: +4.2%, Previous: +4.2%.
   • Tracks house price growth in major U.S. cities. Consistency in this figure reflects stability in the housing market.
7. CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)(15:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 105.9, Previous: 104.7.
   • Measures consumer sentiment toward the economy. An improvement could signal stronger consumer spending potential.
8. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)(15:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: -8.0%, Previous: 3.0%.
   • A real-time estimate of U.S. GDP growth. A drastic change in this figure could signal economic acceleration or contraction.
9. 7-Year Note Auction(18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.532%.
   • Auction yields can impact interest rates and the USD.
10. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):

• Previous: +1.000M.
• Tracks changes in U.S. crude oil inventories, affecting global oil prices.

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

11. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (17:00 UTC):

• Any commentary on inflation or monetary policy could influence the EUR and broader market expectations.

Market Impact Analysis

AUD:

• NAB Business Confidence: If sentiment improves, it could indicate optimism in Australia’s economic prospects, boosting the AUD.

JPY:

• BoJ Core CPI: Stable inflation would likely maintain the BoJ’s dovish stance, keeping monetary policy accommodative.
• BoJ Minutes: Could provide clues about future monetary policy adjustments.

USD:

• Durable Goods & Core Durable Goods Orders: Positive numbers may reinforce expectations of U.S. economic resilience, strengthening the USD.
• CB Consumer Confidence: If confidence rises, it signals stronger consumer spending, boosting U.S. growth prospects.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow: A sharp drop to -8.0% could create concerns about U.S. economic momentum, pressuring the USD.

EUR:

• Lagarde’s Speech: Hawkish comments on inflation could lift the EUR, while dovish remarks may pressure it.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: Moderate to High (Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, and Lagarde’s speech).
• Impact Score: 8/10 – The focus will be on U.S. economic data and ECB communications, which could set the tone for global markets.