Upcoming economic events 28 February 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
13:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan)	———-	2.8%
13:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan)	0.3%	0.2%
13:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (Jan)	-114.90B	-122.01B
13:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Jan)	———-	2.6%
13:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Jan)	———-	0.3%
13:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan)	0.2%	0.7%
13:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan)	———-	-0.1%
14:45		3 points	Chicago PMI (Feb)	40.3	39.5
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)	2.3%	2.3%
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	488
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	592
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	197.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	268.7K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	9.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-40.0K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-56.7K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	60.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	-51.4K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on February 28, 2025

United States (🇺🇸)

1. Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) (13:30 UTC)
   • Previous: 2.8%
   • The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Any deviation from expectations could impact interest rate decisions and market sentiment.
2. Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) (13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 0.3%
   • Previous: 0.2%
   • Higher-than-expected inflation may delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the USD and weighing on equities.
3. Goods Trade Balance (Jan) (13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: -$114.90B
   • Previous: -$122.01B
   • A lower deficit suggests improving trade conditions, which may support the USD.
4. PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) (13:30 UTC)
   • Previous: 2.6%
   • Another key inflation measure that could influence Fed policy and Treasury yields.
5. PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) (13:30 UTC)
   • Previous: 0.3%
   • A sign of short-term inflation trends.
6. Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan) (13:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 0.2%
   • Previous: 0.7%
   • Slower consumer spending could signal weakening demand, potentially affecting corporate earnings and economic growth.
7. Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan) (13:30 UTC)
   • Previous: -0.1%
   • A decline could signal weaker inventory build-up, possibly impacting GDP forecasts.
8. Chicago PMI (Feb) (14:45 UTC)
   • Forecast: 40.3
   • Previous: 39.5
   • A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector.
9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) (15:30 UTC)
   • Previous: 2.3%
   • Updated real-time GDP estimate that could influence market expectations for growth.
10. U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (18:00 UTC)
    • Previous: 488
    • Measures active drilling rigs, which can signal future crude oil supply trends.
11. U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (18:00 UTC)
    • Previous: 592
    • Similar to the oil rig count but includes all energy sector rigs.
12. CFTC Speculative Positioning Reports (20:30 UTC)
    • Crude Oil: Previous: 197.6K
    • Gold: Previous: 268.7K
    • Nasdaq 100: Previous: 9.8K
    • S&P 500: Previous: -40.0K
    • These reports reflect trader sentiment and positioning in key markets.

Australia (🇦🇺)

13. CFTC AUD Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC)

• Previous: -56.7K
• Negative positioning suggests bearish sentiment toward the AUD.

Japan (🇯🇵)

14. CFTC JPY Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC)

• Previous: 60.6K
• Indicates investor sentiment on the JPY.

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

15. CFTC EUR Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC)

• Previous: -51.4K
• Bearish positioning could mean investors expect EUR weakness.

Market Impact Analysis

• USD: PCE inflation data and personal spending will be critical for the Fed’s next move. Higher inflation could push back rate cut expectations, supporting the USD.
• Equities: Higher inflation might lead to market volatility, with investors reassessing Fed policy expectations.
• Bonds: If inflation remains high, Treasury yields may rise as the Fed stays restrictive.
• Commodities: Oil rig count changes may impact crude oil prices.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: High (Inflation data and Fed-related events).
• Impact Score: 8/10 – Inflation and spending data will shape rate expectations and market trends.