Upcoming economic events 27 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3)	0.4%	0.1%
01:00		3 points	RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	4.25%	4.75%
01:00		2 points	RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement	———	———
01:00		2 points	RBNZ Rate Statement	———	———
02:00		2 points	RBNZ Press Conference	———	———
08:00		2 points	European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting	———	———
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———	1,908K
13:30		2 points	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)	0.4%	0.5%
13:30		2 points	Core PCE Prices (Q3)	2.20%	2.80%
13:30		3 points	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)	-0.8%	0.0%
13:30		3 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	2.8%	3.0%
13:30		2 points	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)	1.8%	2.5%
13:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (Oct)	-101.60B	-108.23B
13:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	220K	213K
13:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct)	0.4%	0.5%
13:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Oct)	———	0.2%
14:45		3 points	Chicago PMI	44.9	41.6
15:00		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)	0.3%	0.3%
15:00		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct)	———	2.7%
15:00		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Oct)	———	2.1%
15:00		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Oct)	0.2%	0.2%
15:00		2 points	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)	-2.1%	7.4%
15:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———	0.545M
15:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	-0.140M
16:00		2 points	RBNZ Press Conference	———	———
18:00		2 points	7-Year Note Auction	———	4.215%
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.6%	2.6%
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	479
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	583
18:00		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 27, 2024

1. Australia Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.1%.
     Indicates construction activity in Australia. Higher-than-expected growth would support the AUD, while weaker data could weigh on it.
2. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Policy Statements (01:00–02:00 UTC):
   • Forecast Rate: 4.25%, Previous: 4.75%.
     A rate cut would signal monetary easing, potentially weakening the NZD. If the rate remains unchanged or guidance remains hawkish, the NZD would likely find support.
3. ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting (08:00 UTC):
   Discussions unrelated to monetary policy but may provide insights into the ECB’s focus areas. Limited immediate impact unless significant issues are addressed.
4. US GDP Data (Q3) (13:30 UTC):
   • QoQ Growth: Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 3.0%.
   • Price Index QoQ: Forecast: 1.8%, Previous: 2.5%.
     Slowing GDP growth or a lower price index would signal easing economic activity and inflationary pressures, potentially weighing on the USD.
5. US Durable Goods Orders (Oct) (13:30 UTC):
   • Durable Goods: Forecast: -0.8%, Previous: 0.0%.
   • Core Durable Goods (Excluding Transportation): Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.5%.
     Weaker orders would signal declining business investment, softening the USD, while stronger numbers suggest resilience.
6. US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):
   • Initial Claims: Forecast: 220K, Previous: 213K.
   • Continuing Claims: Previous: 1,908K.
     Rising claims would indicate labor market softening, potentially weighing on the USD, while lower claims suggest continued labor strength.
7. US Personal Spending & Core PCE Prices (15:00 UTC):
   • Personal Spending MoM (Oct): Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.5%.
   • Core PCE MoM (Oct): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%.
   • Core PCE YoY (Oct): Previous: 2.7%.
     Core PCE is a key inflation measure for the Fed. Higher-than-expected figures would support the USD by reinforcing rate hike expectations, while weaker numbers could soften it.
8. US Chicago PMI (14:45 UTC):
   • Forecast: 44.9, Previous: 41.6.
     A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Improvement would signal recovery in manufacturing activity, supporting the USD.
9. US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (15:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: -2.1%, Previous: 7.4%.
     Declining home sales would suggest weakening housing demand, potentially softening the USD.
10. US Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
    • Previous: 0.545M.
      Rising inventories would signal weaker demand, pressuring oil prices, while a drawdown supports prices.
11. US 7-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
    • Previous Yield: 4.215%.
      Higher yields would signal increased inflation expectations or demand for higher returns, supporting the USD.
12. ECB’s Lane Speaks (18:00 UTC):
    Remarks from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane could provide insights into the Eurozone’s inflation and monetary policy outlook, influencing the EUR.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Construction Data:
  Positive results would signal resilience in Australia’s construction sector, supporting the AUD. Weak data would indicate economic challenges, weighing on the currency.
• RBNZ Decisions:
  A rate cut would weigh on the NZD by signaling monetary easing. A hold with hawkish guidance would support the NZD.
• US GDP & Durable Goods Orders:
  Slowing GDP growth or declining durable goods orders would suggest economic cooling, potentially softening the USD. Resilience in these figures would support the currency.
• US Jobless Claims & Core PCE Prices:
  Rising claims would signal labor market weakness, while higher Core PCE figures would support the USD by suggesting persistent inflation.
• Oil Inventories & PMI Data:
  Rising oil inventories would pressure prices and weigh on commodity-linked currencies. An improving Chicago PMI would signal manufacturing recovery, supporting the USD.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by central bank decisions (RBNZ), key US economic indicators (GDP, durable goods, jobless claims), and inflation data (Core PCE).

Impact Score: 8/10, with major influences from US growth and inflation metrics, RBNZ policy decisions, and crude oil inventory changes shaping sentiment across markets.