Upcoming economic events 27 March 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
10:00		2 points	EU Economic Forecasts	———-	———-
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,890K	1,892K
12:30		2 points	Core PCE Prices (Q4)	2.70%	2.20%
12:30		3 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q4)	2.3%	3.1%
12:30		2 points	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)	2.4%	1.9%
12:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (Feb)	-134.60B	-155.57B
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	225K	223K
12:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb)	———-	0.5%
13:00		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
14:00		2 points	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)	0.9%	-4.6%
17:00		2 points	7-Year Note Auction	———-	4.194%
17:40		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———-	———-
18:05		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,756B
23:30		2 points	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	2.2%	2.2%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on March 27, 2025

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

1. EU Economic Forecasts (10:00 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • The European Commission will release its economic forecasts, providing insights into expected growth, inflation, and unemployment trends in the Eurozone.
     • Upward revisions may boost confidence in the euro (EUR), while downward adjustments could exert pressure on the currency.
2. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (13:00 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • As the Vice-President of the European Central Bank, De Guindos’ remarks may offer clues about future monetary policy.
     • Hawkish comments could strengthen the EUR, whereas dovish tones might weaken it.
3. ECB’s Schnabel Speaks (17:40 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • Isabel Schnabel, an ECB Executive Board member, will address topics potentially related to economic outlook and policy measures.
     • Market participants will monitor her speech for indications of policy shifts, influencing the EUR.
4. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (18:05 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • President Lagarde’s speech is highly anticipated for insights into the ECB’s stance on inflation and interest rates.
     • Any unexpected statements could lead to significant EUR volatility.

United States (🇺🇸)

5. Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 1,890K
   • Previous: 1,892K
   • Market Impact:
     • A decrease in claims suggests labor market strength, potentially bolstering the U.S. dollar (USD).
     • An increase may indicate employment challenges, possibly weakening the USD.
6. Core PCE Prices (Q4) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 2.7%
   • Previous: 2.2%
   • Market Impact:
     • As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, higher-than-expected figures could prompt rate hike expectations, strengthening the USD.
     • Lower figures might lead to dovish sentiments, pressuring the USD.
7. GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 2.3%
   • Previous: 3.1%
   • Market Impact:
     • A slowdown in GDP growth may raise concerns about economic momentum, potentially weakening the USD.
     • Stronger growth figures could enhance USD appeal.
8. GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 2.4%
   • Previous: 1.9%
   • Market Impact:
     • Indicates changes in prices for all goods and services included in GDP.
     • Higher readings may signal inflationary pressures, influencing Fed policy expectations and the USD.
9. Goods Trade Balance (Feb) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: -134.60B
   • Previous: -155.57B
   • Market Impact:
     • A narrowing deficit suggests improved trade conditions, potentially supporting the USD.
     • A widening deficit may have the opposite effect.
10. Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
    • Forecast: 225K
    • Previous: 223K
    • Market Impact:
      • Reflects the number of new unemployment claims.
      • Lower claims indicate a robust labor market, potentially strengthening the USD; higher claims may weaken it.
11. Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb) (12:30 UTC)
    • Previous: 0.5%
    • Market Impact:
      • Reflects changes in unsold goods held by retailers, excluding autos.
      • A rise may indicate weaker demand or inventory buildup, while a decline could suggest stronger sales.
12. Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) (14:00 UTC)
    • Forecast: 0.9%
    • Previous: -4.6%
    • Market Impact:
      • An increase suggests a recovering housing market, which could positively influence the USD.
      • A decline may raise concerns about economic health.
13. Fed’s Balance Sheet (20:30 UTC)
    • Previous: $6,756B
    • Market Impact:
      • Changes reflect the Fed’s monetary policy actions.
      • Expansion may indicate accommodative policies, while contraction could suggest tightening.

Japan (🇯🇵)

14. Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) (23:30 UTC)
    • Forecast: 2.2%
    • Previous: 2.2%
    • Market Impact:
      • Serves as a leading indicator for national inflation trends.
      • Higher readings may influence Bank of Japan policy expectations and impact the Japanese yen (JPY).

Market Impact Analysis

• EUR: Speeches by ECB officials and the release of economic forecasts could lead to EUR volatility, especially if policy shifts are hinted.
• USD: Key economic indicators, including GDP, inflation data, and jobless claims, will provide insights into economic health and influence USD strength.
• JPY: Inflation data from Tokyo may affect expectations for national inflation and monetary policy, impacting the JPY.

Overall Impact Score: 6/10

Key Focus: U.S. inflation and GDP figures, along with ECB commentary.