Upcoming economic events 27 June 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
10:00		2 points	EU Leaders Summit	———-	———-
11:30		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———-	———-
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May)	0.1%	0.1%
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May)	2.6%	2.5%
12:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (May)	0.1%	0.1%
12:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (May)	2.3%	2.1%
12:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (May)	0.1%	0.2%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jun)	5.1%	6.6%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jun)	4.1%	4.2%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jun)	58.4	47.9
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)	60.5	52.2
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	———-	3.4%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	438
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	554
20:30		2 points	Fed Bank Stress Test Results	———-	———-

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 27, 2025

Eurozone

1. EU Leaders Summit – 10:00 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • A forum for coordinated policy decisions, particularly on fiscal and geopolitical issues.
  • Outcomes could influence EUR sentiment and sovereign bond dynamics.

United States

2. FOMC Member Williams Speaks – 11:30 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • His remarks could steer expectations around Fed policy. Hawkish tone supports USD and yields; dovish tone boosts risk assets.

3. PCE Price Indexes & Personal Spending (May) – 12:30 UTC

• Core PCE (MoM): 0.1% | YoY: 2.6%
• Headline PCE (MoM): 0.1% | YoY: 2.3%
• Personal Spending (MoM): 0.1%
• Market Impact:
  • As the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, a core PCE above 2.5% may dampen rate cut expectations and buoy bonds and USD.
  • Weak or subdued readings would maintain pressure toward easing rate expectations.

4. Michigan Consumer Survey (Jun) – 14:00 UTC

• 1-Year Inflation: 5.1% | Previous: 6.6%
• 5-Year Inflation: 4.1% | Previous: 4.2%
• Consumer Expectations: 58.4 | Previous: 47.9
• Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 | Previous: 52.2
• Market Impact:
  • Lower inflation expectations alongside a rebound in sentiment suggests improving consumer confidence, supporting both equities and Fed patience.

5. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 15:30 UTC

• Forecast: ~3.4%
• Market Impact:
  • A maintained growth outlook supports stability in financial conditions.

6. U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Counts – 17:00 UTC

• Crude: 438 | Total: 554
• Market Impact:
  • A drop in rig counts may boost oil prices, while an increase could pressure the energy sector.

7. Fed Bank Stress Test Results – 20:30 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Crucial for banking sector confidence. A clean result supports bank stocks, while issues could hurt sector performance and broader risk sentiment.

Market Impact Analysis

• Fed-centric session featuring core inflation indicators, consumer outlooks, and commentary from Williams.
• Michigan survey can offer insight into consumer behavior and inflation expectations—important for Fed policy.
• The Fed stress test outcome adds another layer, focusing on financial system resilience.
• EU summit may provide geopolitical or fiscal updates, subtly impacting EUR and EU assets.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

Key Takeaways:

• Watch the Core PCE print and consumer expectations for clues on inflation trends and Fed intentions.
• Williams’ comments and the bank stress test will guide markets on policy and financial stability.
• The EU summit offers context for EUR, while rig data may influence energy sector positioning.