Upcoming economic events 27 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
13:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (Nov)	-101.30B	-98.26B
13:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Nov)	———-	0.1%
13:30		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Oct)	———-	-0.4%
13:30		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Oct)	———-	4.6%
16:00		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	-0.700M	-0.934M
16:00		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———-	0.108M
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	———-
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	———-
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	230.0K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	262.0K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	36.1K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-39.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-61.5K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	6.0K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	-65.9K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 27, 2024

1. US Goods Trade Balance (13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: -101.30B, Previous: -98.26B.
     A widening deficit indicates higher imports relative to exports, which may weigh on the USD. A narrower deficit would support the currency, reflecting improved trade dynamics.
2. US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (13:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 0.1%.
     Provides insight into inventory levels and potential future production adjustments. Rising inventories could indicate weak demand, while declining inventories suggest robust sales.
3. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (13:30 UTC):
   • MoM (Oct): Previous: -0.4%.
   • YoY (Oct): Previous: 4.6%.
     A rising index indicates strengthening in housing prices, supporting economic sentiment and the USD. Weakness in housing prices may suggest a cooling market.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories (16:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: -0.700M, Previous: -0.934M.
     Inventory drawdowns indicate strong demand, potentially boosting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Builds suggest weaker demand, pressuring prices.
5. US Baker Hughes Rig Counts (18:00 UTC):
   Tracks operational oil rigs. Rising counts suggest higher supply potential, which could weigh on oil prices. Falling counts indicate tightening supply, supporting prices.
6. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
   • Gold, Nasdaq, S&P 500, AUD, JPY, EUR: Reflects market sentiment and positioning. Changes may indicate shifts in risk appetite or currency outlook.

Market Impact Analysis

• US Goods Trade Balance:
  • Positive Scenario: A smaller deficit would reflect improved trade conditions, supporting the USD.
  • Negative Scenario: A larger deficit could weigh on the currency.
• Retail Inventories:
  Rising inventories could suggest weaker retail demand, while declines may indicate healthy consumption trends.
• Housing Data:
  Rising home prices support consumer wealth and economic sentiment, which would bolster the USD. Declines may indicate a softening housing market.
• Crude Oil Inventories & Rig Counts:
  • Positive Scenario: Drawdowns in crude inventories or falling rig counts would lift oil prices, supporting commodity-linked currencies.
  • Negative Scenario: Builds or rising rig counts could weigh on oil prices and associated currencies.
• CFTC Speculative Positions:
  Changes in speculative net positions provide insights into market sentiment for key commodities, indices, and currencies, potentially influencing short-term trends.

Overall Impact

Volatility: Moderate, with significant focus on US trade data, housing metrics, and oil inventories.

Impact Score: 7/10, as trade dynamics and oil data are key drivers for USD and commodity-linked currencies.