Upcoming economic events 26 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
05:00		2 points	BoJ Core CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
10:00		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
13:00		2 points	Building Permits (Oct)	1.416M	1.425M
14:00		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Sep)	5.1%	5.2%
14:00		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Sep)	———	-0.3%
15:00		3 points	CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)	112.0	108.7
15:00		2 points	New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)	———	4.1%
15:00		3 points	New Home Sales (Oct)	724K	738K
18:00		2 points	5-Year Note Auction	———	4.138%
19:00		3 points	FOMC Meeting Minutes	———	———
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	4.753M

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 26, 2024

1. Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) (05:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1.8%, Previous: 1.7%.
     This indicator measures core inflation for Japan. A higher-than-expected reading would signal increasing inflationary pressures, potentially supporting the JPY by increasing speculation about a shift in BoJ policy.
2. ECB McCaul Speaks (10:00 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo McCaul may offer insights into financial stability or monetary policy. Hawkish comments would support the EUR, while dovish remarks might weaken it.
3. US Building Permits (Oct) (13:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1.416M, Previous: 1.425M.
     Building permits serve as a leading indicator of construction activity. A lower reading may signal slowing growth in the housing sector, potentially softening the USD.
4. US S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
   • YoY Forecast: 5.1%, Previous: 5.2%.
   • MoM Previous: -0.3%.
     This index tracks home prices in 20 major US cities. Declines in prices would signal cooling housing demand, potentially weighing on the USD, while stronger figures would indicate resilience in the housing market.
5. US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) (15:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 112.0, Previous: 108.7.
     A higher reading indicates greater consumer optimism, supporting the USD by suggesting stronger consumer spending. A decline could weigh on the currency.
6. US New Home Sales (Oct) (15:00 UTC):
   • MoM Previous: 4.1%.
   • Sales Forecast: 724K, Previous: 738K.
     A decline in sales would indicate weaker housing demand, potentially pressuring the USD. Stronger data would suggest economic resilience, supporting the currency.
7. US 5-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.138%.
     Rising yields signal higher inflation expectations or risk premiums, supporting the USD. Lower yields may indicate reduced demand for US debt, softening the currency.
8. FOMC Meeting Minutes (19:00 UTC):
   Detailed minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting may provide further insights into the Fed’s policy outlook. Hawkish signals would support the USD, while dovish tones could weaken it.
9. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 4.753M.
     A larger-than-expected inventory build would signal weaker demand, pressuring oil prices. A drawdown would indicate stronger demand, supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies.

Market Impact Analysis

• Japan BoJ Core CPI:
  A higher-than-expected CPI reading would support the JPY, increasing speculation about potential monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan. A lower reading may reinforce the BoJ’s dovish stance, weighing on the currency.
• ECB McCaul Speech:
  Hawkish comments would support the EUR by signaling a commitment to combating inflation. Dovish remarks would indicate caution, potentially weighing on the EUR.
• US Housing Data (Building Permits, Home Sales, S&P/CS HPI):
  Positive readings would indicate resilience in the housing market, supporting the USD. Weak data may signal cooling economic activity, potentially softening the currency.
• US CB Consumer Confidence:
  Higher confidence would suggest stronger consumer spending and economic resilience, supporting the USD. Lower-than-expected confidence would weigh on the currency.
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes:
  Hawkish minutes signaling concerns about inflation or additional rate hikes would support the USD. Dovish minutes indicating caution or rate pause considerations could soften the currency.
• API Crude Oil Stock:
  A large inventory build would suggest weaker demand, pressuring oil prices. A drawdown would indicate tightening supply, supporting oil prices and energy-linked currencies.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with significant data on US housing, consumer confidence, and FOMC meeting minutes shaping expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy.

Impact Score: 7/10, driven by key housing data, consumer sentiment, and insights from FOMC minutes, alongside oil inventory data influencing energy markets.