Upcoming economic events 26 June 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
09:45		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
10:00		2 points	EU Leaders Summit	———-	———-
11:00		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———-	———-
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,950K	1,945K
12:30		2 points	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)	0.1%	0.2%
12:30		2 points	Core PCE Prices (Q1)	3.40%	2.60%
12:30		3 points	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)	8.6%	-6.3%
12:30		3 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)	-0.2%	2.4%
12:30		2 points	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)	3.7%	2.3%
12:30		2 points	Goods Trade Balance (May)	-86.30B	-86.97B
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	244K	245K
12:30		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May)	———-	0.3%
14:00		2 points	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)	0.2%	-6.3%
16:00		2 points	7-Year Note Auction	———-	4.194%
17:15		2 points	Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks	———-	———-
18:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,681B
23:00		2 points	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks	———-	———-
23:30		2 points	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)	3.3%	3.6%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 26, 2025

Eurozone

1. ECB’s De Guindos & Schnabel Speak – 09:45 & 11:00 UTC

2. EU Leaders Summit – 10:00 UTC

3. ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 18:30 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • A lineup of ECB officials and EU summit discussions will spotlight post-policy cut strategy and economic coordination.
  • Hawkish tones could strengthen the euro and lift bond yields; dovish messaging may maintain pressure.

United States

4. Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Forecasts: ~244K initial and 1.95M continuing
• Impact:
  • Further softening supports Fed rate-cut expectations. If claims stay elevated, it could weigh on the USD.

5. Durable Goods & Core PCE Price Index (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

• Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +8.6% vs -6.3% prior
• Core PCE Price Index: Forecast 3.4% vs 2.6% prior
• Impact:
  • Strong durable goods data indicates business resilience, which may bolster equities.
  • A higher Core PCE reading signals sticky inflation, likely pressuring Treasury yields and the USD.

6. GDP & GDP Price Index (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

• GDP Forecast: -0.2% QoQ vs +2.4% prior
• GDP Price Index: Forecast 3.7% vs 2.3% prior
• Impact:
  • A contraction combined with hotter inflation highlights stagflation risks, which could unsettle markets and complicate Fed policy.

7. Goods Trade Balance (May) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: –$86.3B vs –$87.0B prior
• Impact:
  • A slightly narrower deficit may offset some growth concerns, offering modest USD support.

8. Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +0.3%
• Impact:
  • Rising inventories may signal demand softening, weighing on retail earnings outlook.

9. Pending Home Sales (May) – 14:00 UTC

• Forecast: +0.2% vs –6.3% prior
• Impact:
  • A rebound in pending sales could boost confidence in housing and consumer spending.

10. 7-Year Note Auction – 16:00 UTC

• Previous Yield: ~4.19%
• Impact:
  • Demand will test appetite for medium-term debt—poor demand may drive yields higher and tighten financial conditions.

11. Fed VP Barr & FOMC Kashkari Speak – 17:15 & 23:00 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Commentary will guide views on bank regulation and monetary policy direction. Hawkish remarks could lift yields and the USD.

12. Fed’s Balance Sheet Update – 20:30 UTC

• Previous: ~$6.681T
• Impact:
  • Continued shrinkage signals liquidity tightening, affecting Treasury markets and possibly equities.

Japan

13. Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) – 23:30 UTC

• Forecast: 3.3% vs 3.6% prior
• Impact:
  • Cooling CPI could ease pressure on the BoJ to tighten, potentially weakening JPY.

Market Impact Analysis

• U.S. macro releases will dominate market focus: a mix of economic contraction with inflation persistence presents a policy puzzle, likely leading to volatile USD, bond yields, and equity movements.
• ECB commentary and EU policy developments may influence EUR direction.
• Fed communications across multiple speakers will be dissected for signals on timing and scope of rate cuts, regulatory outlook, and balance sheet policy.
• Tokyo CPI will determine whether JPY remains under pressure amid easing inflation.

Overall Impact Score: 9/10

Key Takeaways:

• Markets will be watching for signs of a U.S. stagflationary environment—weak growth but sticky inflation—which could reshape Fed expectations and risk sentiment.
• Incoming data will strongly influence USD and Treasury yields, while ECB messaging will steer EUR volatility.
• JPY reaction to softer CPI may further shift global currency dynamics late in the day.