Upcoming economic events 26 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———-	1,874K
13:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	223K	220K
18:00		2 points	7-Year Note Auction	———-	4.183%
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———-	-4.700M
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,889B
23:30		2 points	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)	2.5%	2.2%
23:50		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)	-3.4%	2.8%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 26, 2024

1. US Labor Market Data (13:30 UTC):
   • Continuing Jobless Claims: Previous: 1,874K.
   • Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 223K, Previous: 220K.
     Labor market stability reflects economic resilience. Lower claims support the USD, while higher claims suggest economic softening, weighing on the currency.
2. US 7-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.183%.
     Strong demand or higher yields would support the USD by reflecting confidence in US debt or inflationary pressures. Weak demand could pressure the currency.
3. US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: -4.700M.
     A larger-than-expected drawdown signals robust oil demand, potentially supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Builds could exert downward pressure on oil prices.
4. US Fed’s Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 6,889B.
     Changes in the Fed’s balance sheet size can indicate shifts in monetary policy or liquidity provisions, impacting the USD indirectly.
5. Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (23:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.2%.
     A rise in inflation could support the JPY by raising expectations of future BoJ policy adjustments. Stable or declining inflation may weigh on the currency.
6. Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (23:50 UTC):
   • Forecast: -3.4%, Previous: 2.8%.
     A sharp decline in production would reflect weakening industrial activity, potentially pressuring the JPY. Positive surprises would indicate resilience, supporting the currency.

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Market Impact Analysis

• US Labor Data:
  • Positive Scenario: Lower jobless claims indicate a robust labor market, supporting the USD.
  • Negative Scenario: Higher claims suggest economic softening, potentially weakening the USD.
• Oil Inventories:
  Drawdowns would support oil prices and commodity currencies (e.g., CAD). Builds would pressure prices.
• Japan Tokyo Core CPI & Industrial Production:
  • Positive Scenario: Higher CPI or resilient production would strengthen the JPY by raising expectations of policy normalization.
  • Negative Scenario: Lower inflation or weak production could weigh on the JPY.
• US 7-Year Note Auction:
  Strong demand or rising yields would support the USD, while weak demand may exert downward pressure.

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Overall Impact

Volatility: Moderate to high, influenced by US labor data, crude oil inventories, and Japanese inflation and production figures.

Impact Score: 7/10, with the key drivers being US jobless claims and Japanese economic data influencing USD and JPY movements.