Upcoming economic events 26 August  2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	RBA Meeting Minutes	———-	———-
05:00		2 points	BoJ Core CPI (YoY)	2.4%	2.3%
12:30		2 points	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)	0.3%	0.2%
12:30		2 points	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)	-4.0%	-9.4%
13:00		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jun)	2.9%	2.8%
13:00		2 points	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jun)	———-	0.4%
14:00		3 points	CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)	96.3	97.2
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	2.3%	2.3%
17:00		2 points	2-Year Note Auction	———-	3.920%
20:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———-	-2.400M

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 26, 2025

Asia-Pacific – Australia & Japan

RBA Meeting Minutes – 01:30 UTC

• Impact: Provides insights into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy stance. Markets will focus on how close the board is to further easing or if a policy pause is more likely. AUD volatility expected if tone diverges from recent signals.

BoJ Core CPI (YoY, Jul) – 05:00 UTC

• Forecast: 2.4% (Prev. 2.3%)
• Impact: A modest uptick keeps inflation above target, maintaining pressure on the BoJ. Higher readings support JPY, while weaker data may reinforce yen softness.

United States – Housing, Consumer, and Orders Data

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +0.3% (Prev. +0.2%)
• Impact: Indicates business investment strength excluding volatile items. Stronger data supports USD and equity sentiment.

Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: -4.0% (Prev. -9.4%)
• Impact: A smaller decline suggests stabilization after prior weakness. A deeper fall could pressure equities and bond yields lower.

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI (Jun) – 13:00 UTC

• YoY Forecast: +2.9% (Prev. +2.8%)
• MoM Prev.: +0.4%
• Impact: Continued home price growth signals sticky housing demand despite higher mortgage rates. A miss may dampen confidence in housing recovery.

CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) – 14:00 UTC

• Forecast: 96.3 (Prev. 97.2)
• Impact: A dip suggests consumers are turning cautious, weighing on equities. Higher-than-expected confidence would support risk appetite.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – 15:30 UTC

• Forecast: 2.3% (same as prior)
• Impact: Confirms steady but moderate growth outlook. Markets will react strongly only if model diverges sharply.

2-Year Note Auction – 17:00 UTC

• Prev.: 3.920%
• Impact: Auction demand influences short-term yields and Fed expectations. Weak demand could push yields up, strengthening USD.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – 20:30 UTC

• Prev.: -2.400M
• Impact: Another drawdown would support oil prices, while a surprise build pressures energy markets.

Market Impact Analysis

• Asia: BoJ CPI data could move JPY if inflation deviates significantly. RBA minutes shape AUD expectations ahead of September.
• U.S.: Durable goods and consumer confidence dominate mid-session sentiment. Stronger orders and steady confidence = bullish USD and equities. Weakness could spark risk-off.
• Energy: Oil may see late volatility depending on API data, with spillover into inflation expectations.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

• Key Watchpoints: U.S. durable goods, consumer confidence, and BoJ inflation.
• Expect moderate-to-high volatility in USD, equities, oil, and JPY.