Upcoming economic events 25 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
07:00		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
12:30		2 points	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)	-0.1%	0.5%
12:30		3 points	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)	-1.1%	0.0%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)	2.9%	2.7%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)	3.0%	3.1%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct)	72.9	72.9
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)	68.9	70.1
14:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	3.4%	3.4%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	482	482
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	585
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	184.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	286.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	1.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	28.1K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	19.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	34.1K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	17.1K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 25, 2024

1. ECB McCaul Speaks (07:00 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo McCaul may offer insights into financial regulation and monetary policy in the Eurozone.
2. US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks changes in new orders for non-transportation durable goods. Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: 0.5%. A decline would signal slowing demand for long-lasting goods.
3. US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the monthly change in orders for durable goods. Forecast: -1.1%, Previous: 0.0%. A decline indicates weakening business investment and manufacturing demand.
4. US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Forecast: 2.9%, Previous: 2.7%. Rising inflation expectations would signal that consumers expect price pressures to persist.
5. US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: 3.1%. Stable long-term expectations suggest controlled inflationary pressures.
6. US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Forecast: 72.9, Previous: 72.9. Tracks consumers’ outlook on economic conditions. A higher number signals greater optimism about future economic growth.
7. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Forecast: 68.9, Previous: 70.1. A decline in sentiment could indicate reduced confidence in the economy, potentially leading to lower consumer spending.
8. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (14:30 UTC):
   A real-time estimate of US GDP growth for Q3. Forecast: 3.4%, Previous: 3.4%. No change expected.
9. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
   Measures the number of active oil rigs in the US. Previous: 482. An increase signals rising oil production.
10. US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Measures the total number of active oil and gas rigs. Previous: 585. Changes reflect activity in the energy sector.
11. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    • Crude Oil Net Positions (Previous: 184.4K): Reflects market sentiment toward crude oil prices.
    • Gold Net Positions (Previous: 286.4K): Tracks speculative positions in gold futures.
    • Nasdaq 100 Net Positions (Previous: 1.4K): Reflects market positioning in Nasdaq 100 futures.
    • S&P 500 Net Positions (Previous: 28.1K): Measures speculative sentiment in S&P 500 futures.
    • AUD Net Positions (Previous: 19.3K): Tracks speculative positions in the Australian dollar.
    • JPY Net Positions (Previous: 34.1K): Measures speculative sentiment in the Japanese yen.
    • EUR Net Positions (Previous: 17.1K): Reflects sentiment toward the euro in futures markets.

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Market Impact Analysis

• ECB McCaul Speech:
  Remarks from ECB officials could influence the EUR depending on whether the tone is hawkish or dovish regarding monetary policy.
• US Durable Goods Orders:
  A decline in durable goods orders would suggest weakening demand and business investment, potentially weighing on the USD. Stronger-than-expected data would support the USD.
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations:
  Higher inflation expectations or weak consumer sentiment would suggest consumer concerns about price pressures, potentially weakening the USD as it raises fears of slower economic growth. Stronger sentiment or lower inflation expectations would support the USD.
• US Baker Hughes Rig Counts:
  Rising oil and gas rig counts would suggest increased production, potentially putting downward pressure on oil prices. A decline would signal tightening supply, which may boost prices.
• CFTC Speculative Positions:
  Shifts in speculative positioning provide insights into market sentiment across various assets, including crude oil, gold, equity indices, and major currencies like the EUR, JPY, and AUD.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with potential market movement driven by US durable goods data, consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations. Speculative positioning and oil rig count data will also contribute to volatility, particularly in commodities and currency markets.

Impact Score: 6/10, as durable goods orders, consumer sentiment, and ECB speeches will shape short-term market expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy decisions.