Upcoming economic events 24 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Oct)	———	53.1
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	45.1	45.0
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Oct)	49.8	49.6
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Oct)	51.5	51.4
12:30		2 points	Building Permits (Sep)	1.428M	1.470M
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,880K	1,867K
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	243K	241K
13:45		3 points	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	47.5	47.3
13:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct)	———	54.0
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)	55.0	55.2
14:00		3 points	New Home Sales (Sep)	719K	716K
14:00		2 points	New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)	———	-4.7%
15:00		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	5-Year TIPS Auction	———	2.050%
17:00		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,039B
23:30		2 points	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)	1.7%	2.0%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 24, 2024

1. au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Oct) (00:30 UTC):
   A key indicator of the performance of Japan’s services sector. Previous: 53.1. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector.
2. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (08:00 UTC):
   Tracks manufacturing activity in the Eurozone. Forecast: 45.1, Previous: 45.0. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the sector.
3. HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Oct) (08:00 UTC):
   A composite measure of overall business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Forecast: 49.8, Previous: 49.6. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
4. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Oct) (08:00 UTC):
   Measures the performance of the services sector. Forecast: 51.5, Previous: 51.4. A reading above 50 indicates growth.
5. US Building Permits (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the number of new building permits issued. Forecast: 1.428M, Previous: 1.470M. A decrease may signal weakening demand in the housing market.
6. US Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment benefits. Forecast: 1.880M, Previous: 1.867M. Rising claims suggest labor market softening.
7. US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
   Measures new unemployment benefit claims. Forecast: 243K, Previous: 241K. Higher claims could indicate weakening labor market conditions.
8. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (13:45 UTC):
   A measure of US manufacturing sector activity. Forecast: 47.5, Previous: 47.3. A reading below 50 signals contraction.
9. S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) (13:45 UTC):
   Tracks overall business activity in the US. Previous: 54.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
10. S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) (13:45 UTC):
    Measures activity in the US services sector. Forecast: 55.0, Previous: 55.2. A reading above 50 indicates continued growth.
11. US New Home Sales (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
    Measures the annualized number of new single-family homes sold. Forecast: 719K, Previous: 716K. Growth suggests strength in the housing market.
12. US New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
    Tracks the monthly percentage change in new home sales. Previous: -4.7%.
13. ECB McCaul Speaks (15:00 UTC):
    Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo McCaul may offer insights into financial regulation and economic conditions in the Eurozone.
14. US 5-Year TIPS Auction (17:00 UTC):
    The auction of 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Previous yield: 2.050%. Higher yields may indicate rising inflation expectations.
15. ECB’s Lane Speaks (17:00 UTC):
    ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane may discuss the Eurozone’s inflation outlook and potential monetary policy actions.
16. Fed’s Balance Sheet (20:30 UTC):
    Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Previous: $7,039B. Changes in the balance sheet indicate the Fed’s asset purchasing activities and liquidity measures.
17. Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) (23:30 UTC):
    Tracks the annual change in consumer prices in Tokyo, excluding fresh food. Forecast: 1.7%, Previous: 2.0%. A decline would suggest easing inflationary pressures.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Japan Services PMI & Tokyo Core CPI:
  A higher services PMI would signal strength in Japan’s services sector, supporting the JPY. A lower Tokyo Core CPI would suggest easing inflation, potentially reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance.
• Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMIs:
  Weak manufacturing and composite PMIs would indicate a slowing Eurozone economy, likely weighing on the EUR. Stronger-than-expected services PMI data may partially offset this impact.
• US Jobless Claims & Building Permits:
  Rising jobless claims or a decline in building permits would indicate weakening labor market or housing activity, potentially softening the USD. Resilience in these metrics would support the USD.
• US S&P Global PMIs & New Home Sales:
  A stronger services PMI and higher new home sales would signal economic strength, supporting the USD. Conversely, weaker data could dampen sentiment around the US economy.
• ECB Speeches (McCaul, Lane):
  Hawkish remarks from ECB officials would support the EUR by signaling continued efforts to control inflation. Dovish tones would likely weaken the EUR.
• US 5-Year TIPS Auction & Fed Balance Sheet:
  Higher yields from the TIPS auction would indicate rising inflation expectations, supporting the USD. Changes in the Fed’s balance sheet could affect market liquidity and broader sentiment.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, with the focus on Eurozone PMI data, US labor market statistics, and US housing market reports. Central bank commentary and inflation data from Japan and the Eurozone will also influence market movements.

Impact Score: 7/10, with significant market sensitivity to PMI readings, jobless claims, and central bank outlooks shaping expectations for economic growth and monetary policy tightening.