Upcoming economic events 24 July 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jul)	———-	51.7
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	49.7	49.5
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul)	50.8	50.6
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jul)	50.6	50.5
12:15		3 points	Deposit Facility Rate (Jul)	2.00%	2.00%
12:15		2 points	ECB Marginal Lending Facility	———-	2.40%
12:15		2 points	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	———-	———-
12:15		3 points	ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)	2.15%	2.15%
12:30		2 points	Building Permits (Jun)	1.397M	1.394M
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———-	1,956K
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	227K	221K
12:45		3 points	ECB Press Conference	———-	———-
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	52.7	52.9
13:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul)	———-	52.9
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)	53.0	52.9
14:00		2 points	New Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)	———-	-13.7%
14:00		3 points	New Home Sales (Jun)	649K	623K
17:00		2 points	10-Year TIPS Auction	———-	2.220%
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,659B
23:30		2 points	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)	3.0%	3.1%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 24, 2025

Asia – Japan

au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jul) – 00:30 UTC

• Previous: 51.7
• Impact: A reading above 50 indicates continued expansion in services. Strong performance supports JPY and benefits Japanese equities.

Europe – ECB Rates & PMI

Eurozone HCOB PMI Bundles (Jul) – 08:00 UTC

• Manufacturing: 49.7 (prev 49.5)
• Composite: 50.8 (prev 50.6)
• Services: 50.6 (prev 50.5)
• Impact: Marginal manufacturing improvement with stable services reinforces balanced economic momentum. Impact on EUR is moderate unless there’s notable divergence.

ECB Interest Rate Decision – 12:15 UTC

• Deposit Facility Rate: 2.00% (unchanged)
• Marginal Lending Facility: ~2.40%
• Impact: No change expected, but forward guidance and inflation outlook in the Monetary Policy Statement could significantly influence EUR and eurozone yields.

ECB Press Conference – 12:45 UTC

• Impact: Speakers will clarify policy stance, economic forecasts, and possible future rate moves. Market will read for dovish or hawkish shifts.

United States – Housing, Labor, PMI & Treasury

Building Permits (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 1.397M (prev 1.394M)
• Impact: Stability points to steady housing starts; neutral for housing stocks and economic outlook unless surprise change.

Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 19) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 227K (prev 221K)
• Impact: A subtle increase may show slight labor market softening, supporting Fed easing expectations and pressure on USD.

Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Prev: 1,956K
• Impact: Stable ongoing claims reinforce labor market resiliency; limited impact unless volatile move.

S&P Global PMI Bundle (Jul) – 13:45 UTC

• Manufacturing: 52.7 (prev 52.9)
• Services: 53.0 (prev 52.9)
• Composite: 52.9
• Impact: A minor cooling in manufacturing unlikely to disrupt markets, but continued services strength supports steady GDP growth outlook.

New Home Sales (Jun) – 14:00 UTC

• Forecast: +649K (prev 623K) | MoM declines notable
• Impact: Higher sales level suggests resilience despite cooling rate – slightly bullish for homebuilders; MoM contraction may dampen sentiment.

10-Year TIPS Auction – 17:00 UTC

• Impact: Auction demand provides insight into inflation expectations; weak demand may push real yields higher, realigning bond market risk.

Fed Balance Sheet Weekly Update – 20:30 UTC

• Impact: Trends in Fed repo and balance sheet reductions may signal liquidity growth or withdrawal—this influences Treasury yield curves and USD trade.

Asia End-of-Day – Japan Inflation

Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Jul) – 23:30 UTC

• Forecast: 3.0% (prev 3.1%)
• Impact: Slight decline may ease BoJ tightening concerns; trend stability is key as markets assess inflation trajectory and currency pressure.

Market Impact Analysis

• ECB action and communication are mid-day focal points across Europe and FX markets.
• U.S. housing and labor indicators maintain pressure on Fed outlook, influencing yield curves and USD sentiment.
• PMI and TIPS auction provide incremental insight into growth and inflation expectations – likely to cause modest market movements.
• JPY and Asian markets will react to early and late Japanese data, setting regional tone.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

Key Watchpoints

• Clarity from ECB on rate path—dovish vs hawkish tone will be pivotal for EUR.
• Jobless claims trends – important for shifting Fed narrative.
• TIPS auction results – key gauge of inflation expectations.
• Tokyo CPI trend – closely watched for BoJ policy implications.