Upcoming economic events 24 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	RBA Meeting Minutes	———-	———-
05:00		2 points	BoJ Core CPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.5%
13:30		2 points	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)	0.3%	0.1%
13:30		3 points	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)	-0.3%	0.2%
15:00		3 points	New Home Sales (Nov)	666K	610K
15:00		2 points	New Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)	———-	-17.3%
18:00		2 points	5-Year Note Auction	———-	4.197%
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	———-	———-
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———-	-4.700M

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 24, 2024

1. Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (00:30 UTC):
   • Insights from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent meeting may provide clues on future monetary policy. Hawkish tones would support the AUD, while dovish commentary could weigh on the currency.
2. Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) (05:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1.5%, Previous: 1.5%.
     Stability in core inflation aligns with the BoJ’s current policy stance. A higher reading could signal rising inflationary pressures, supporting the JPY. Lower inflation might reduce expectations for policy adjustments, weighing on the currency.
3. US Durable Goods Orders (13:30 UTC):
   • Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%.
   • Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: 0.2%.
     Durable goods data provide insights into business investment. Stronger-than-expected numbers would support the USD by indicating economic resilience. Weak data could weigh on the currency.
4. US Housing Data (15:00 UTC):
   • New Home Sales (Nov): Forecast: 666K, Previous: 610K.
   • New Home Sales (MoM) (Nov): Previous: -17.3%.
     An increase in new home sales indicates robust housing demand, supporting the USD. Declining sales could signal weakening consumer confidence or affordability issues.
5. US 5-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.197%.
     Higher yields suggest rising inflation expectations or increased demand for returns, which would support the USD. Weak demand might weigh on the currency.
6. US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: -4.700M.
     A larger-than-expected drawdown signals strong demand for crude, potentially supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Builds could pressure prices.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australia RBA Minutes:
  A hawkish tone could support the AUD by suggesting future rate hikes. Dovish commentary might weigh on the currency.
• Japan BoJ Core CPI:
  Stable inflation supports the status quo for the BoJ, with limited JPY movement expected. Surprises on either side would drive the JPY accordingly.
• US Durable Goods & Housing Data:
  • Positive Scenario: Strong durable goods or housing figures would reflect resilient business investment and consumer demand, supporting the USD.
  • Negative Scenario: Weak data would suggest slowing economic momentum, potentially weighing on the USD.
• Crude Oil Inventories:
  Drawdowns would lift oil prices, supporting commodity-linked currencies. Builds could pressure oil prices and associated currencies.

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Overall Impact

Volatility: Moderate, driven by US durable goods and housing data, alongside potential surprises in oil inventories or central bank commentary.

Impact Score: 7/10, with key drivers being US economic indicators and potential shifts in sentiment from RBA or BoJ commentary.