Upcoming economic events 23 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
13:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———
14:00		3 points	Existing Home Sales (Sep)	3.88M	3.86M
14:00		2 points	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)	———	-2.5%
14:00		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
14:00		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———
14:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	0.700M	-2.191M
14:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	0.108M
17:00		2 points	20-Year Bond Auction	———	4.039%
17:00		2 points	RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	Beige Book	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 23, 2024

1. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (13:00 UTC):
   Remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman may provide insights into the Fed’s outlook on inflation, interest rates, and the broader economic outlook.
2. US Existing Home Sales (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
   Tracks the number of existing homes sold annually. Forecast: 3.88M, Previous: 3.86M. Stronger sales would indicate resilience in the housing market, while weaker sales suggest softening demand.
3. US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
   Measures the month-on-month change in existing home sales. Previous: -2.5%. A decline would signal a slowing housing market.
4. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (14:00 UTC):
   ECB President Christine Lagarde may provide updates on the Eurozone’s economic conditions, inflation trends, and the central bank’s monetary policy direction.
5. ECB’s Lane Speaks (14:00 UTC):
   ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane may offer further insights into the ECB’s strategy to manage inflation and economic recovery in the Eurozone.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories (14:30 UTC):
   Measures weekly changes in crude oil stockpiles. Forecast: 0.700M, Previous: -2.191M. A rise in inventories may signal weaker demand, weighing on oil prices, while a decline would indicate stronger consumption.
7. Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (14:30 UTC):
   Tracks the amount of crude oil stored at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub. Previous: 0.108M. Changes here affect US crude oil pricing.
8. US 20-Year Bond Auction (17:00 UTC):
   The auction for 20-year Treasury bonds. Previous yield: 4.039%. Higher yields would reflect increased borrowing costs or inflation expectations.
9. RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks (17:00 UTC):
   New Zealand’s Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr may discuss monetary policy and economic conditions, potentially offering insights into future rate decisions.
10. US Beige Book (18:00 UTC):
    A Federal Reserve report that provides anecdotal evidence on current economic conditions across the US. It is closely watched for insights into consumer demand, labor market trends, and inflation pressures.

Market Impact Analysis

• FOMC Bowman Speech:
  Any hawkish tone from Bowman could strengthen the USD, signaling more aggressive interest rate hikes. Dovish remarks may weaken the USD as it would suggest caution about economic risks.
• US Existing Home Sales Data (MoM and Annualized):
  Weaker-than-expected home sales would suggest a cooling housing market, which could weigh on the USD. Stronger sales would indicate continued demand, supporting the USD.
• ECB Speeches (Lagarde and Lane):
  Hawkish comments regarding inflation control from Lagarde or Lane would support the EUR, while dovish remarks could soften the currency, especially if the focus shifts to economic challenges.
• US Crude Oil Inventories:
  A build in inventories would signal weaker demand, likely putting downward pressure on oil prices. A decline would indicate stronger consumption, supporting oil prices.
• US 20-Year Bond Auction:
  Higher bond yields could indicate rising inflation expectations or increased risk premiums, which would support the USD by attracting foreign capital.
• RBNZ Governor Orr Speech:
  Any indication of future rate hikes from Adrian Orr would support the NZD, while dovish signals may weaken it.
• US Beige Book:
  A report suggesting a resilient economy and persistent inflation would support the USD by reinforcing the need for continued Fed tightening. A more cautious report would weaken the USD as it might signal slowing economic growth.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, with potential market movements driven by speeches from central bank officials (Fed, ECB, RBNZ), housing market data from the US, and the Beige Book report. US crude oil inventories and bond auction results may also contribute to volatility in commodity and bond markets.

Impact Score: 7/10, due to the combination of central bank speeches, critical US economic data, and oil market dynamics. These events will shape expectations for future monetary policy and economic growth.