Upcoming economic events 22 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Nov)	———	49.7
08:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
08:40		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———	———
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	46.0	46.0
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Nov)	———	50.0
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Nov)	51.6	51.6
11:15		2 points	ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks	———	———
14:45		3 points	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	———	48.5
14:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov)	———	54.1
14:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)	———	55.0
15:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov)	2.6%	2.7%
15:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov)	3.1%	3.0%
15:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov)	78.5	74.1
15:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)	73.0	70.5
15:45		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	478
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	584
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	186.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	236.5K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	16.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	25.0K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	29.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	-64.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	-7.4K
23:15		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 22, 2024

1. Japan Services PMI (Nov) (00:30 UTC):
   • au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI: Previous: 49.7.
     A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the services sector, which would weigh on the JPY. A return above 50 would signal expansion, supporting the currency.
2. ECB Speeches (Lagarde, De Guindos, Tuominen, Schnabel) (08:30–15:45 UTC):
   Comments from ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde, Vice President Luis de Guindos, Supervisory Board Member Anneli Tuominen, and Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel, could offer insights into inflation, monetary policy, or economic growth. Hawkish commentary would support the EUR, while dovish remarks could weaken it.
3. Eurozone PMI Data (Nov) (09:00 UTC):
   • HCOB Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 46.0, Previous: 46.0.
   • HCOB Composite PMI: Previous: 50.0.
   • HCOB Services PMI: Forecast: 51.6, Previous: 51.6.
     A manufacturing PMI below 50 suggests contraction, while composite and services PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion. Stronger-than-expected data would support the EUR, while weaker data might weigh on it.
4. US S&P Global PMI Data (Nov) (14:45 UTC):
   • Manufacturing PMI: Previous: 48.5.
   • Composite PMI: Previous: 54.1.
   • Services PMI: Previous: 55.0.
     PMI readings below 50 signal contraction, while those above 50 suggest expansion. Strong PMI figures would support the USD, while weaker data might dampen sentiment.
5. US Michigan Inflation Expectations & Consumer Sentiment (Nov) (15:00 UTC):
   • 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Forecast: 2.6%, Previous: 2.7%.
   • 5-Year Inflation Expectations: Forecast: 3.1%, Previous: 3.0%.
   • Consumer Expectations: Forecast: 78.5, Previous: 74.1.
   • Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 73.0, Previous: 70.5.
     Improved sentiment and stable inflation expectations would support the USD by indicating consumer confidence and price stability. Declines might weigh on the currency.
6. US Baker Hughes Rig Counts (18:00 UTC):
   • Oil Rig Count: Previous: 478.
   • Total Rig Count: Previous: 584.
     Changes in rig counts reflect oil production activity. Rising counts suggest increased supply, which may weigh on oil prices, while declines indicate tightening supply.
7. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
   • Tracks speculative sentiment in crude oil, gold, equities, and major currencies.
     Changes in positioning provide insights into market sentiment and demand dynamics, influencing asset prices.
8. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (23:15 UTC):
   Remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman may provide further clarity on the Fed’s inflation outlook and policy stance. Hawkish comments would support the USD, while dovish remarks might weigh on it.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Japan Services PMI:
  A reading below 50 signals contraction, potentially softening the JPY. A return to expansion territory would suggest economic resilience, supporting the currency.
• Eurozone PMI Data & ECB Speeches:
  Strong PMI figures or hawkish commentary from ECB officials would reinforce expectations for policy tightening, supporting the EUR. Weak data or dovish remarks could weigh on the EUR.
• US PMI & Consumer Sentiment:
  Robust PMI data and improved consumer sentiment would support the USD by signaling economic strength. Weak figures or declining sentiment would suggest economic cooling, potentially softening the currency.
• Baker Hughes Rig Counts:
  Rising rig counts indicate higher supply, which may pressure oil prices and impact commodity-linked currencies. Declines suggest tightening supply, supporting oil prices.
• CFTC Speculative Positions:
  Changes in net positions provide insights into market sentiment and future price trends across major commodities, equities, and currencies.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, driven by PMI releases from the Eurozone and the US, ECB and FOMC commentary, and sentiment measures. Energy markets will be sensitive to Baker Hughes data.

Impact Score: 7/10, with PMI data and central bank speeches shaping expectations for growth and monetary policy, and speculative positioning reflecting broader market sentiment.