Upcoming economic events 22 May 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Services PMI (May)	———-	52.4
01:30		2 points	BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks	———-	———-
02:00		2 points	Annual Budget Release	———-	———-
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (May)	49.3	49.0
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (May)	———-	50.4
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (May)	50.6	50.1
11:30		2 points	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting	———-	———-
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———-	1,881K
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	227K	229K
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)	49.9	50.2
13:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (May)	———-	50.6
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (May)	50.7	50.8
14:00		3 points	Existing Home Sales (Apr)	4.15M	4.02M
14:00		2 points	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)	———-	-5.9%
15:00		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———-	———-
15:35		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
16:00		2 points	10-Year TIPS Auction	———-	1.935%
18:00		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———-	———-
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,713B
22:45		2 points	Core Retail Sales (QoQ)	1.5%	1.4%
22:45		2 points	Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)	0.0%	0.9%
23:30		2 points	National Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)	3.5%	3.2%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on May 22, 2025

Japan

1. au Jibun Bank Services PMI (May) – 00:30 UTC

• Previous: 52.4
• Market Impact:
  • A reading above 50 signals expansion. Stable or rising values support JPY and equities modestly.
  • A sharp drop could undermine sentiment on Japan’s services sector.

2. BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks – 01:30 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Commentary may influence expectations for future policy normalization.
  • Hawkish tone may strengthen yen; dovish could weaken it.

3. National Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) – 23:30 UTC

• Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.2%
• Market Impact:
  • A higher reading could fuel expectations of BoJ tightening, strengthening JPY and bond yields.

New Zealand

4. Annual Budget Release – 02:00 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Market will watch for fiscal discipline vs. stimulus.
  • If expansionary, NZD may weaken; if conservative, it may support NZD stability.

5. Core Retail Sales (QoQ) – 22:45 UTC

• Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: 1.4%
• 6. Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) –
  • Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.9%
• Market Impact:
  • Weak sales could pressure NZD and signal economic slowdown.
  • A strong core figure may offer some support for the currency.

Eurozone

7. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (May) – 08:00 UTC

• Forecast: 49.3 | Previous: 49.0

8. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (May) – 08:00 UTC

• Forecast: 50.6 | Previous: 50.1

9. HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (May) – 08:00 UTC

• Previous: 50.4
• Market Impact:
  • Readings near 50 suggest sluggish recovery. Upside surprises could boost EUR and equities.
  • Weak results reinforce stagnation concerns.

10. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 11:30 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • May influence rate expectations.
  • Hawkish details could lift EUR; dovish could pressure it.

11. ECB’s Elderson & De Guindos Speak – 15:00 & 15:35 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Focus on inflation and financial risks.
  • May reinforce tone from policy minutes.

United States

12. Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 227K | Previous: 229K

13. Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Previous: 1,881K
• Market Impact:
  • Lower claims signal labor market resilience; could limit Fed easing expectations, supporting USD and yields.

14. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) – 13:45 UTC

• Forecast: 49.9 | Previous: 50.2

15. S&P Global Services PMI – 13:45 UTC

• Forecast: 50.7 | Previous: 50.8

16. S&P Global Composite PMI – 13:45 UTC

• Previous: 50.6
• Market Impact:
  • Decline in PMIs may suggest cooling growth, possibly dampening USD and lifting stocks on Fed cut hopes.

17. Existing Home Sales (Apr) – 14:00 UTC

• Forecast: 4.15M | Previous: 4.02M

18. Existing Home Sales (MoM) – 14:00 UTC

• Previous: -5.9%
• Market Impact:
  • Better sales support housing sector sentiment.
  • Weak data may reinforce soft-landing expectations.

19. 10-Year TIPS Auction – 16:00 UTC

• Previous Yield: 1.935%
• Market Impact:
  • Demand levels will affect real yield expectations and may impact USD and equities.

20. FOMC Member Williams Speaks – 18:00 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Closely watched for Fed policy tone; hawkish comments may strengthen USD, while dovish tone supports risk assets.

21. Fed’s Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC

• Previous: $6.713T
• Market Impact:
  • Ongoing balance sheet reduction pace may impact liquidity and rate outlook.

Market Impact Analysis

• U.S. data-heavy session with PMIs, jobless claims, and housing reports. This may set the tone for risk sentiment and interest rate expectations.
• Eurozone PMI and ECB communications could sway the euro and bond yields.
• Japan’s CPI is key for BoJ rate expectations.
• New Zealand’s budget and retail data could lead to short-term NZD volatility.
• PMI figures globally will be used to assess services and manufacturing resilience, potentially affecting central bank stances.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

Key Focus:
U.S. jobless claims, PMIs, and home sales, along with Japan CPI and Eurozone PMIs/ECB minutes, will dominate trading sentiment. Together, they could significantly shift currency valuations, equity indices, and bond markets, with a high probability of increased volatility across multiple regions.