Upcoming economic events 22 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
15:00		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	-0.1%	0.3%
15:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
18:00		2 points	20-Year Bond Auction	———-	4.686%
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———-	-2.600M
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.64T	-0.38T
23:50		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Dec)	2.3%	3.8%
23:50		2 points	Trade Balance (Dec)	-55.0B	-110.3B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 22, 2025

European Union

1. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (15:00 & 15:15 UTC):
   • President Lagarde’s speeches are critical for insights into the ECB’s outlook on inflation, monetary policy, and economic conditions.
   • Markets will scrutinize her tone for clues on potential rate adjustments.

United States

2. 20-Year Bond Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.686%.
     Demand at this auction reflects investor sentiment toward long-term U.S. debt, with higher yields indicating reduced confidence or increased inflation expectations.
3. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: -2.600M.
     Weekly changes in U.S. crude oil inventories affect oil prices and energy stocks. A larger-than-expected draw could signal strong demand, boosting oil prices.

Japan

4. Adjusted Trade Balance (23:50 UTC):
   • Forecast: -0.64T, Previous: -0.38T.
     Indicates the net goods trade after seasonal adjustments. A widening deficit may pressure the JPY, signaling weaker exports or higher import costs.
5. Exports (YoY) (Dec) (23:50 UTC):
   • Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%.
     A slowdown in export growth may raise concerns about external demand, especially from key trading partners like China and the U.S.
6. Trade Balance (Dec) (23:50 UTC):
   • Forecast: -55.0B, Previous: -110.3B.
     A narrower deficit may support the JPY, indicating stronger trade performance.

Market Impact Analysis

EUR:

• ECB President Lagarde’s comments will likely set the tone for EUR performance, particularly if she signals shifts in monetary policy or inflation outlook.

USD:

• The 20-Year Bond Auction will reflect demand for long-term U.S. Treasuries, influencing yields and USD movement.
• API Crude Oil Stock data could affect energy markets and broader inflation expectations.

JPY:

• Trade Balance and Export Data: Weaker-than-expected figures could weigh on the JPY by highlighting trade vulnerabilities. Conversely, a narrowing deficit or strong exports may boost sentiment.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: Medium (Crude Oil Stock and ECB speeches are the primary triggers).
• Impact Score: 5/10 – Moderate impact, with attention on ECB comments and Japanese trade data for directional cues.