Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 00:00 |  | 2 points | Jackson Hole Symposium | ———- | ———- |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | ———- | 412 |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | ———- | 539 |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | ———- | 116.7K |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Gold speculative net positions | ———- | 229.5K |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | ———- | 33.8K |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions | ———- | -139.6K |
| 19:30 |  | 2 points | CFTC AUD speculative net positions | ———- | -83.6K |
| 19:30 |  | 2 points | CFTC JPY speculative net positions | ———- | 82.0K |
| 19:30 |  | 2 points | CFTC EUR speculative net positions | ———- | 116.0K |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 22, 2025
Global – Central Bank Focus
Jackson Hole Symposium – All Day (00:00 UTC)
- Impact: Ongoing event. Historically, Jackson Hole is where central bankers signal major policy shifts (e.g., QE in 2010, tightening in 2021). Market participants will track every speech for hints on the Fed’s next steps and global monetary coordination.
- Key Assets Affected: USD, U.S. Treasuries, global equities, gold.
Fed Chair Powell Speaks – 14:00 UTC
- Impact: The most critical event of the day. Powell’s tone (hawkish vs dovish) will dictate near-term market direction.
- Hawkish: Strengthens USD, lifts Treasury yields, pressures equities.
- Dovish: Weakens USD, supports equities, boosts gold.
United States – Energy & Positioning
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count – 17:00 UTC
- Prev.: 412
- Impact: Falling rig counts suggest supply tightening, supportive for crude oil prices. Stable or rising rigs signal more production, weighing on oil.
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count – 17:00 UTC
- Prev.: 539
- Impact: Provides broader view of drilling activity, with similar implications for energy markets.
CFTC Positioning Reports – 19:30 UTC
- Crude Oil Spec Net Positions: Prev. +116.7K → Higher longs = bullish sentiment in oil.
- Gold Spec Net Positions: Prev. +229.5K → High long exposure indicates strong hedge demand.
- Nasdaq 100 Spec Net Positions: Prev. +33.8K → Positive sentiment toward tech equities.
- S&P 500 Spec Net Positions: Prev. -139.6K → Net shorts show bearish bias in broader equities.
- AUD Spec Net Positions: Prev. -83.6K → Bearish positioning suggests continued downside risks.
- JPY Spec Net Positions: Prev. +82.0K → Longs signal safe-haven demand.
- EUR Spec Net Positions: Prev. +116.0K → Net longs indicate EUR bullishness, sensitive to ECB tone.
Market Impact Analysis
- Jackson Hole + Powell Speech = Global Market Driver
- This will overshadow all other events. Powell’s tone determines whether markets price in further Fed hikes, prolonged high rates, or early easing.
- Energy Markets: Rig count and CFTC oil positions could reinforce bullish oil if supply remains constrained and speculative longs rise.
- Precious Metals: Gold positioning remains elevated; Powell’s dovishness could trigger a breakout rally.
- Equities: Nasdaq and S&P futures positioning suggests tech optimism but broader market caution. A dovish Powell could squeeze shorts, while hawkish remarks deepen equity risk-off.
- FX: AUD and EUR positioning show diverging sentiment—AUD weakness (commodity risks) vs EUR strength (relative ECB hawkishness). JPY remains a safe-haven hedge.
Overall Impact Score: 10/10
- Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is the single most important event of August for global markets.
- Volatility will be very high across USD, U.S. Treasuries, gold, oil, equities, and major FX pairs.
