Upcoming economic events 21 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:00		2 points	China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Oct)	3.65%	3.85%
01:15		2 points	PBoC Loan Prime Rate	3.15%	3.35%
14:00		2 points	US Leading Index (MoM) (Sep)	-0.3%	-0.2%
17:00		2 points	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks	———	———
22:40		2 points	FOMC Member Daly Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 21, 2024

1. China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Oct) (01:00 UTC):
   The People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) 5-year loan prime rate, which serves as a reference for mortgages. Forecast: 3.65%, Previous: 3.85%. A rate cut could indicate further easing to stimulate economic growth.
2. PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Oct) (01:15 UTC):
   The 1-year loan prime rate set by the PBoC, which influences corporate and household borrowing costs. Forecast: 3.15%, Previous: 3.35%. A reduction suggests continued efforts to lower borrowing costs and support the economy.
3. US Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
   A composite index that forecasts the direction of the economy. Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: -0.2%. A further decline suggests economic weakening and potential slowdown ahead.
4. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks (17:00 UTC):
   Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, may offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s outlook on inflation, growth, and potential interest rate adjustments.
5. FOMC Member Daly Speaks (22:40 UTC):
   Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, could provide further perspective on the Fed’s policy direction and views on economic risks.

Market Impact Analysis

• China Loan Prime Rates (5Y and 1Y):
  A cut in either rate would indicate further monetary easing, aimed at boosting economic growth in China. This could weaken the CNY but may provide support to global commodities and risk assets tied to Chinese demand.
• US Leading Index (MoM):
  A further decline would signal a continued economic slowdown, which could weigh on the USD by increasing the likelihood of a more dovish stance from the Fed.
• FOMC Member Kashkari & Daly Speeches:
  Hawkish remarks from either Fed member would support the USD by signaling potential for more rate hikes, while dovish commentary would soften the USD, suggesting concerns about slowing economic growth.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with the potential for market shifts based on China’s interest rate decisions and US leading economic indicators. Fed speeches will be closely watched for any signals on future monetary policy direction.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by China’s monetary policy adjustments and US leading index data, which will influence market sentiment on global growth and interest rate expectations.