Upcoming economic events 21 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
08:00		2 points	RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks	———	———
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———	1,873K
13:30		2 points	Initial Jobless Claims	220K	217K
13:30		2 points	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)	6.3	10.3
13:30		2 points	Philly Fed Employment (Nov)	———	-2.2
15:00		2 points	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)	———	-1.0%
15:00		3 points	Existing Home Sales (Oct)	3.94M	3.84M
15:00		2 points	US Leading Index (MoM) (Oct)	-0.3%	-0.5%
15:30		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
15:30		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	10-Year TIPS Auction	———	1.592%
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	6,967B
21:40		2 points	Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks	———	———
23:30		2 points	National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)	2.2%	2.4%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 21, 2024

1. RBA Assistant Governor Bullock Speaks (08:00 UTC):
   Remarks from RBA Assistant Governor Michele Bullock may provide insights into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook and economic conditions, potentially influencing the AUD.
2. US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):

• Continuing Jobless Claims: Previous: 1,873K.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 220K, Previous: 217K.
  Rising claims could signal labor market softening, potentially weighing on the USD, while lower-than-expected claims would indicate labor market resilience, supporting the USD.

1. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index & Employment (Nov) (13:30 UTC):

• Manufacturing Index: Forecast: 6.3, Previous: 10.3.
• Employment Index: Previous: -2.2.
  A decline in the manufacturing index or negative employment figures could suggest slowing activity in the manufacturing sector, potentially softening the USD.

1. US Existing Home Sales (MoM & Oct) (15:00 UTC):

• MoM Change: Previous: -1.0%.
• Sales Volume: Forecast: 3.94M, Previous: 3.84M.
  A stronger housing market would support the USD, while declining sales would signal weakening consumer demand, potentially weighing on the currency.

1. US Leading Index (MoM) (Oct) (15:00 UTC):
   Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: -0.5%. A continued decline signals economic slowing, potentially dampening USD sentiment.
2. ECB Speeches (Elderson & Lane) (15:30 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB officials could provide insights into inflation and growth expectations, influencing the EUR. Hawkish commentary would support the EUR, while dovish tones might weaken it.
3. US 10-Year TIPS Auction (18:00 UTC):
   Auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Previous yield: 1.592%. Higher yields signal increased inflation expectations or demand for higher returns, potentially supporting the USD.
4. Fed’s Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC):
   Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Changes in the balance sheet could influence USD sentiment, especially if they indicate shifts in monetary policy tools.
5. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (21:40 UTC):
   Remarks from Vice Chair Michael Barr may provide insights into financial stability and regulatory concerns, influencing market sentiment.
6. Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) (23:30 UTC):
   Forecast: 2.2%, Previous: 2.4%. A lower-than-expected reading would indicate easing inflationary pressures, potentially weighing on the JPY, while stronger figures would support the currency.

Market Impact Analysis

• RBA Speech:
  Hawkish commentary from Bullock would support the AUD, while dovish remarks or concerns about growth may weigh on the currency.
• US Jobless Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:
  Higher claims or a weaker Philly Fed index would signal labor market and manufacturing sector softening, weighing on the USD. Stronger data would support the USD by reinforcing economic resilience.
• US Housing Data:
  Increased existing home sales would signal strength in the housing market, supporting the USD. Declines would indicate slowing consumer demand, potentially softening the currency.
• ECB Speeches:
  Hawkish tones from Elderson and Lane would support the EUR, particularly if inflation concerns remain high. Dovish remarks could weigh on the EUR.
• Japan National Core CPI:
  Higher-than-expected inflation would support the JPY by suggesting the Bank of Japan may consider policy adjustments. Lower inflation could weaken the JPY by reinforcing dovish monetary expectations.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with attention on US jobless claims, manufacturing activity, and housing data, along with ECB commentary and Japanese inflation figures.

Impact Score: 6/10, due to the mix of labor, housing, inflation, and central bank insights that will influence market sentiment and expectations for monetary policy across major economies.