Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 01:00 |  | 2 points | China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jul) | 3.50% | 3.50% |
| 01:00 | | 2 points | PBoC Loan Prime Rate | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| 14:00 |  | 2 points | US Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) | -0.2% | -0.1% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 21, 2025
Asia – China Lending Rates
China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jul) – 01:00 UTC
- Forecast: 3.50% | Previous: 3.50%
- PBoC Loan Prime Rate (1Y): 3.00% (unchanged)
- Impact: No change expected in benchmark lending rates suggests the PBoC remains cautious. Stability supports the yuan but reflects limited monetary easing to stimulate growth.
United States – Growth Outlook
US Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) – 14:00 UTC
- Forecast: –0.2% | Previous: –0.1%
- Impact: Continued decline highlights economic softening signals. A larger-than-expected drop could weigh on equities and boost bonds as recession risk grows.
Market Impact Analysis
This is a relatively light data day. China’s steady rates signal policy continuity, providing stability in Asian markets. The US Leading Index is the key release; it could shape growth outlook expectations. A weaker print might increase rate-cut bets and pressure the USD while supporting Treasuries.
Overall Impact Score: 4/10
Key Watchpoints:
- Whether the US Leading Index deepens its decline—key for gauging soft-landing versus recession risk.
- Any surprise move in China’s lending rates, which could ripple through Asian equity and FX markets.
Let me know if you’d like a scenario breakdown for these events.
