Upcoming economic events 20 September 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:00		2 points	China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Sep)	3.85%	3.85%
01:15		2 points	PBoC Loan Prime Rate	3.35%	3.35%
02:30		2 points	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement	———	———
03:00		3 points	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%
06:30		2 points	BoJ Press Conference	———	———
15:00		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	488
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	590
18:00		2 points	FOMC Member Harker Speaks	———	———
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	140.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	282.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	25.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	-59.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	-14.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	55.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	81.4K
21:00		2 points	Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q3)	———	82.2

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on September 20, 2024

1. China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Sep) (01:00 UTC): The 5-year loan prime rate set by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), typically influencing mortgage rates. Forecast: 3.85%, Previous: 3.85%.
2. PBoC Loan Prime Rate (01:15 UTC): China’s key loan prime rate, a benchmark for lending. Forecast: 3.35%, Previous: 3.35%.
3. BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (02:30 UTC): The Bank of Japan’s update on monetary policy, outlining the economic outlook and policy stance.
4. BoJ Interest Rate Decision (03:00 UTC): Decision on Japan’s key interest rate. Forecast: 0.25%, Previous: 0.25%.
5. BoJ Press Conference (06:30 UTC): Bank of Japan officials discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy following the rate decision.
6. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (15:00 UTC): Christine Lagarde provides insights into the ECB’s economic outlook and monetary policy.
7. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (17:00 UTC): Weekly update on the number of active oil rigs in the US. Previous: 488.
8. US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC): Weekly update on the total number of active rigs, including gas. Previous: 590.
9. FOMC Member Harker Speaks (18:00 UTC): Commentary from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, potentially discussing economic conditions and future monetary policy.
10. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC): Weekly data on speculative net positions in various assets, indicating market sentiment for:
    • Crude Oil: Previous: 140.0K
    • Gold: Previous: 282.5K
    • Nasdaq 100: Previous: 25.6K
    • S&P 500: Previous: -59.4K
    • AUD: Previous: -14.0K
    • JPY: Previous: 55.8K
    • EUR: Previous: 81.4K
11. New Zealand Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q3) (21:00 UTC): Measures consumer confidence in New Zealand. Previous: 82.2.

Market Impact Analysis

• China Loan Prime Rates: Unchanged rates indicate continued economic stability in China. A surprise cut could stimulate growth but may signal economic weakness, impacting CNY and commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
• BoJ Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Decision: A decision to keep rates unchanged supports JPY stability. Any surprise move could shake the markets, especially if there’s a shift in the ultra-loose monetary policy.
• ECB President Lagarde Speech: Remarks from Lagarde will influence EUR, especially if there are hints about future policy actions in response to inflation or economic conditions.
• US Baker Hughes Rig Count: Changes in rig counts can signal supply trends in the oil market, affecting oil prices and energy-linked currencies like CAD.
• CFTC Speculative Net Positions: Shifts in speculative positions across major assets provide insights into market sentiment. Significant changes in positioning may signal upcoming market volatility.
• New Zealand Westpac Consumer Sentiment: A decline in consumer sentiment could weaken NZD by signaling economic concerns, while an improvement may support the currency.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: Moderate, with potential movements in commodity markets, especially oil, and currencies like JPY, CNY, and NZD, depending on central bank announcements and sentiment data.
• Impact Score: 6/10, indicating moderate potential for market movements.