Upcoming economic events 20 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:00		2 points	China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Nov)	3.60%	3.60%
01:15		2 points	PBoC Loan Prime Rate	3.10%	3.10%
09:00		2 points	ECB Financial Stability Review	———	———
13:00		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
15:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———	2.089M
15:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	-0.688M
17:15		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	20-Year Bond Auction	———	4.590%
18:00		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 20, 2024

1. China Loan Prime Rate (5Y & 1Y) (Nov) (01:00 & 01:15 UTC):

• 5Y Loan Prime Rate: Forecast: 3.60%, Previous: 3.60%.
• 1Y PBoC Loan Prime Rate: Forecast: 3.10%, Previous: 3.10%.
  These key lending rates set by the People’s Bank of China are critical for influencing credit conditions and economic growth. No change is expected, but adjustments would significantly impact the CNY and global market sentiment.

1. ECB Financial Stability Review (09:00 UTC):
   A biannual report assessing risks to the Eurozone’s financial system. Insights into potential vulnerabilities could influence EUR sentiment, especially if concerns about systemic risks are highlighted.
2. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (13:00 UTC):
   Comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde may provide guidance on monetary policy and economic conditions. Hawkish remarks would support the EUR, while dovish tones might weigh on it.
3. US Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
   Tracks weekly changes in crude oil stockpiles. Previous: 2.089M. A drawdown would indicate strong demand, supporting oil prices, while a build signals weaker demand, potentially pressuring prices.
4. US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
   Measures oil storage levels in Cushing, Oklahoma. Previous: -0.688M. Changes in these levels directly influence US crude prices.
5. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (17:15 UTC):
   Remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman may provide insights into the Fed’s policy outlook. Hawkish commentary would support the USD, while dovish tones could soften it.
6. US 20-Year Bond Auction (18:00 UTC):
   Auction for 20-year Treasury bonds. Previous yield: 4.590%. Higher yields suggest increased inflation expectations or risk premiums, potentially supporting the USD by attracting foreign investment.
7. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (18:00 UTC):
   ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos may address economic and financial conditions in the Eurozone, influencing EUR sentiment depending on the tone of his remarks.

Market Impact Analysis

• China Loan Prime Rates:
  Unchanged rates are unlikely to move markets significantly, but any deviation from expectations would strongly impact the CNY and risk sentiment globally. A rate cut would signal a stimulus push, supporting risk-sensitive assets but potentially weakening the CNY.
• ECB Financial Stability Review & Speeches (Lagarde & De Guindos):
  The review and ECB commentary could highlight financial risks or resilience in the Eurozone, influencing the EUR. Hawkish remarks emphasizing inflation risks would support the currency, while dovish tones focusing on economic challenges could weigh on it.
• US Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories:
  A larger-than-expected inventory build would signal weaker demand, pressuring oil prices and commodity-linked currencies. A drawdown would support oil prices, reflecting stronger demand.
• FOMC Member Bowman Speech:
  Hawkish remarks suggesting further tightening would support the USD, while dovish commentary emphasizing caution could weigh on it.
• US 20-Year Bond Auction:
  Rising yields would reflect higher borrowing costs and inflation expectations, potentially supporting the USD by attracting global investors to US debt markets.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with key focus on ECB commentary, US crude oil inventories, and bond auction yields. China’s loan prime rate decision could also influence global risk sentiment.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by the interplay of central bank insights, energy market dynamics, and long-term bond yields shaping expectations for economic and monetary policy globally.