Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 01:00 |  | 2 points | China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May) | 3.50% | 3.60% |
| 01:15 | | 2 points | PBoC Loan Prime Rate | 3.00% | 3.10% |
| 04:30 |  | 3 points | RBA Interest Rate Decision (May) | 3.85% | 4.10% |
| 04:30 | | 2 points | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | ———- | ———- |
| 04:30 | | 2 points | RBA Rate Statement | ———- | ———- |
| 13:00 |  | 2 points | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ———- | 4.287M |
| 23:00 | | 2 points | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 23:50 |  | 2 points | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.19T | -0.23T |
| 23:50 | | 2 points | Exports (YoY) (Apr) | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 23:50 | | 2 points | Trade Balance (Apr) | 227.1B | 559.4B |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on May 20, 2025
Asia-Pacific Region
1. China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May) – 01:00 UTC
- Forecast: 3.50% | Previous: 3.60%
- Market Impact:
- A reduction in the 5Y LPR indicates easing in long-term credit conditions.
- Likely to support equity markets while putting downward pressure on the yuan.
2. PBoC Loan Prime Rate – 01:15 UTC
- Forecast: 3.00% | Previous: 3.10%
- Market Impact:
- A further cut in the 1Y rate would signal more aggressive monetary easing.
- Could stimulate domestic demand, benefiting risk assets but weakening the currency.
Australia
3. RBA Interest Rate Decision – 04:30 UTC
- Forecast: 3.85% | Previous: 4.10%
- Market Impact:
- A cut may reflect concerns over slowing growth, potentially weakening AUD and lifting equities.
- If rate is unchanged or above forecast, it could indicate inflation concerns, supporting AUD.
4. RBA Monetary Policy Statement – 04:30 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Closely monitored for forward guidance.
- Dovish tone may reinforce expectations of future cuts, weighing on AUD.
5. RBA Rate Statement – 04:30 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Provides rationale for the decision; tone is crucial.
- A cautious or accommodative tone could boost stocks and bond prices.
United States
6. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks – 13:00 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Watched for monetary policy clues.
- Dovish tone may weigh on USD and boost equity markets; hawkish could have the opposite effect.
7. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – 20:30 UTC
- Previous: +4.287M
- Market Impact:
- Rising inventories may pressure oil prices.
- Falling stockpiles could support energy prices and inflation expectations.
8. FOMC Member Daly Speaks – 23:00 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Comments could shift short-term expectations for interest rates, influencing Treasury yields and USD.
Japan
9. Adjusted Trade Balance – 23:50 UTC
- Forecast: -0.19T | Previous: -0.23T
- Market Impact:
- A smaller deficit signals improvement in trade position, which could strengthen the yen.
10. Exports (YoY) (Apr) – 23:50 UTC
- Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 4.0%
- Market Impact:
- Slowing growth may signal weaker global demand, pressuring JPY and Japanese equities.
11. Trade Balance (Apr) – 23:50 UTC
- Forecast: 227.1B | Previous: 559.4B
- Market Impact:
- A significantly lower surplus might negatively impact sentiment toward the yen.
Market Impact Analysis
- Asia-Pacific Focus: Rate cuts from China and Australia could reinforce a regional easing trend, boosting equities but weakening their currencies.
- U.S. Focus: Fed commentary and oil data may steer market expectations on inflation and interest rates.
- Japan: Trade data will influence yen strength and investor sentiment toward export-driven growth.
- If monetary easing continues in China and Australia: Expect bullish equity markets, weaker AUD/CNY.
- If U.S. Fed officials remain cautious or hawkish: May support the USD and keep Treasury yields stable.
- Japan data may have localized impact, unless significantly deviating from expectations.
