Upcoming economic events 20 June 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:00		2 points	China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun)	3.50%	3.50%
01:15		2 points	PBoC Loan Prime Rate	3.00%	3.00%
08:00		2 points	ECB Economic Bulletin	———-	———-
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———-	———-
12:30		3 points	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)	-1.7	-4.0
12:30		2 points	Philly Fed Employment (Jun)	———-	16.5
14:00		2 points	US Leading Index (MoM) (May)	-0.1%	-1.0%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	439
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	555
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,677B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 20, 2025

China

1. China Loan Prime Rate 5Y & 1Y (Jun) – 01:00 & 01:15 UTC

• Forecast: 5Y LPR 3.50% • 1Y LPR 3.00%
• Market Impact:
  • Keeping rates steady signals a pause after May’s easing, limiting pressure on the CNY.
  • It may suggest that policymakers prefer to assess earlier stimulus effects before acting further.

Eurozone

2. ECB Economic Bulletin – 08:00 UTC

3. Eurogroup Meetings – 10:00 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • These updates provide insight into macroeconomic trends and fiscal policy.
  • Markets will look for clues regarding the ECB’s future rate path and eurozone growth outlook.

United States

4. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: -1.7 | Previous: -4.0
• Market Impact:
  • A less negative print would indicate stabilization in manufacturing, supporting USD and equity sentiment.
  • A weaker result may reinforce concerns about a broader slowdown.

5. Philly Fed Employment Index (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Previous: 16.5
• Market Impact:
  • A strong labor component supports a resilient job market narrative, reducing pressure for Fed rate cuts.

6. Leading Index (May) – 14:00 UTC

• Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -1.0%
• Market Impact:
  • A shallow decline would suggest economic conditions are stabilizing.
  • Continued contraction signals ongoing weakness.

7. U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Counts – 17:00 UTC

• Previous: Crude 439 | Total 555
• Market Impact:
  • Fewer rigs suggest constrained supply and can support oil prices.
  • An increase may imply easing supply tightness, potentially pressuring energy markets.

8. Fed’s Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC

• Previous: $6.677 trillion
• Market Impact:
  • Ongoing balance sheet reduction continues tightening liquidity, which can weigh on Treasuries and equities.

Market Impact Analysis

• China: No change in rates reflects a neutral stance, offering limited immediate market impact.
• Eurozone: Bulletin and meetings may shift expectations on the ECB’s next move.
• United States: Manufacturing data and the leading index will shape sentiment on U.S. economic health.
• The Fed’s balance sheet and energy rig count offer context on liquidity and inflation pressures.

Overall Impact Score: 7/10

Key Focus:

• U.S. macro releases (Philly Fed, Leading Index) are the key directional drivers.
• China and Eurozone updates offer context but are not expected to produce shocks.
• Watch rig counts and balance sheet for secondary impacts on inflation and liquidity.