Upcoming economic events 20 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:00		2 points	China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jan)	3.60%	3.60%
01:15		2 points	PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Jan)	3.10%	3.10%
04:30		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)	-2.3%	-2.3%
10:00		2 points	Electronic Card Eurogroup Meetings	———-	———-
21:45		2 points	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)	———-	0.0%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 20, 2025

China

1. China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (01:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 3.60%, Previous: 3.60%.
     A key indicator for long-term borrowing costs; stability suggests the PBoC remains neutral.
2. PBoC Loan Prime Rate (01:15 UTC):
   • Forecast: 3.10%, Previous: 3.10%.
     Reflects short-term borrowing conditions; no change aligns with maintaining accommodative policy.

Japan

3. Industrial Production (MoM) (04:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: -2.3%, Previous: -2.3%.
     This highlights trends in manufacturing output. A repeat of contraction may weigh on JPY sentiment.

European Union

4. Eurogroup Meetings (10:00 UTC):
   High-level discussions among Eurozone finance ministers. While details are often unavailable beforehand, commentary could impact the EUR if it touches on fiscal policy or economic outlooks.

Australia

5. Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (21:45 UTC):
   • Previous: 0.0%.
     Tracks consumer spending trends via electronic transactions, a proxy for retail activity.

Market Impact Analysis

CNY:

• Stability in loan prime rates will likely limit market volatility, but any unexpected change could significantly impact the CNY and regional risk sentiment.

JPY:

• Continued contraction in industrial production could pressure the JPY as it signals persistent economic challenges.

EUR:

• Outcomes or commentary from Eurogroup Meetings could hint at fiscal coordination or policy changes, influencing the EUR.

AUD:

• Retail sales performance may reflect consumer confidence and spending trends, potentially affecting the AUD.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: Low to Medium (Focus on Chinese loan rates and Japanese industrial production).
• Impact Score: 5/10 – Limited directional cues expected unless surprises occur.