Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 00:30 |  | 2 points | Employment Change (Jan) | 19.4K | 56.3K |
| 00:30 | | 2 points | Full Employment Change (Jan) | ———- | -23.7K |
| 00:30 | | 2 points | Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| 01:00 |  | 2 points | China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Feb) | 3.60% | 3.60% |
| 01:15 | | 2 points | PBoC Loan Prime Rate | 3.10% | 3.10% |
| 13:30 |  | 2 points | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,870K | 1,850K |
| 13:30 | | 3 points | Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 213K |
| 13:30 | | 3 points | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) | 19.4 | 44.3 |
| 13:30 | | 2 points | Philly Fed Employment (Feb) | ———- | 11.9 |
| 15:00 | | 2 points | US Leading Index (MoM) (Jan) | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 17:00 | | 3 points | Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | 4.070M |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | 0.872M |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | 30-Year TIPS Auction | ———- | 2.055% |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 21:30 | | 2 points | Fed’s Balance Sheet | ———- | 6,814B |
| 23:30 |  | 2 points | National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 3.1% | 3.0% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on February 20, 2025
Australia (🇦🇺)
- Employment Change (Jan) (00:30 UTC)
- Forecast: 19.4K, Previous: 56.3K
- Lower job growth may pressure the AUD if expectations of an RBA rate cut increase.
- Full Employment Change (Jan) (00:30 UTC)
- Previous: -23.7K
- Key to assessing job quality; negative numbers indicate part-time job growth over full-time.
- Unemployment Rate (Jan) (00:30 UTC)
- Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.0%
- A rising rate could weaken AUD sentiment.
China (🇨🇳)
- China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Feb) (01:00 UTC)
- Forecast: 3.60%, Previous: 3.60%
- No change expected; impacts long-term mortgage rates.
- PBoC Loan Prime Rate (01:15 UTC)
- Forecast: 3.10%, Previous: 3.10%
- A cut could weaken CNY and boost liquidity.
United States (🇺🇸)
- Continuing Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)
- Forecast: 1,870K, Previous: 1,850K
- Rising claims indicate weakening labor market.
- Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)
- Forecast: 214K, Previous: 213K
- Steady numbers suggest no immediate labor market stress.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) (13:30 UTC)
- Forecast: 19.4, Previous: 44.3
- A significant drop could indicate slowing economic activity.
- Philly Fed Employment (Feb) (13:30 UTC)
- Previous: 11.9
- Measures hiring activity in the manufacturing sector.
- US Leading Index (MoM) (Jan) (15:00 UTC)
- Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: -0.1%
- Continuous decline could signal economic slowdown.
- Crude Oil Inventories (17:00 UTC)
- Previous: 4.070M
- A build-up may pressure oil prices downward.
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (17:00 UTC)
- Previous: 0.872M
- Impacts WTI crude oil pricing.
- 30-Year TIPS Auction (18:00 UTC)
- Previous: 2.055%
- Higher yields may indicate stronger inflation expectations.
- Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (19:30 UTC)
- Could provide insights into banking sector regulation and monetary policy.
- Fed’s Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC)
- Previous: 6,814B
- Watching for Federal Reserve liquidity changes.
Japan (🇯🇵)
- National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) (23:30 UTC)
- Forecast: 3.1%, Previous: 3.0%
- Higher inflation could push BoJ policy shifts, affecting JPY.
Market Impact Analysis
- AUD: Employment data will dictate AUD movements; weak numbers may lower rate hike expectations.
- CNY: No change in Loan Prime Rates would maintain stability, but a cut could weaken CNY.
- USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and jobless claims could set market sentiment.
- Oil Prices: Crude inventory data will influence WTI and Brent.
- JPY: Inflation data may push JPY higher if inflation continues rising.
Volatility & Impact Score
- Volatility: High (Key employment, manufacturing, and inflation data).
- Impact Score: 8/10 – Jobs, inflation, and Fed commentary could drive strong market movements.
