Upcoming economic events 20 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:00		2 points	China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Dec)	3.60%	3.60%
01:15		2 points	PBoC Loan Prime Rate	3.10%	3.10%
12:30		2 points	FOMC Member Daly Speaks	———-	———-
13:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)	0.2%	0.3%
13:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov)	2.9%	2.8%
13:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Nov)	2.5%	2.3%
13:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Nov)	0.2%	0.2%
13:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov)	0.5%	0.4%
15:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)	2.9%	2.6%
15:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)	3.1%	3.2%
15:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec)	71.6	76.9
15:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)	74.0	71.8
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	3.2%	3.2%
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	———-
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	———-
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	190.1K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	275.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	35.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-83.3K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	8.5K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	25.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	-75.6K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 20, 2024

1. China Loan Prime Rates (01:00–01:15 UTC):
   • 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (Dec): Forecast: 3.60%, Previous: 3.60%.
   • 1-Year Loan Prime Rate: Forecast: 3.10%, Previous: 3.10%.
     No changes expected. A cut would signal easing monetary policy, weighing on the CNY, while stability or an unexpected increase would support the currency.
2. US Core PCE and Inflation Data (13:30 UTC):
   • Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.3%.
   • Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 2.9%, Previous: 2.8%.
   • PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.3%.
   • Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 0.4%.
     These are key inflation and spending indicators. Higher-than-expected readings would support the USD, as they signal persistent inflation pressures. Lower readings may weigh on the currency.
3. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations (15:00 UTC):
   • 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec): Forecast: 2.9%, Previous: 2.6%.
   • 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec): Forecast: 3.1%, Previous: 3.2%.
   • Consumer Sentiment (Dec): Forecast: 74.0, Previous: 71.8.
     Improving sentiment and stable inflation expectations would support the USD. Weak sentiment would raise concerns about consumer spending resilience.
4. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Counts (18:00 UTC):
   Tracks operational oil rigs. A rising count signals higher supply, pressuring oil prices. Declines indicate tightening supply, supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies.
5. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
   Monitors sentiment in major markets, including crude oil, gold, equity indices, and currencies. Changes in positioning provide insights into market expectations.

Market Impact Analysis

• China Loan Prime Rates:
  Stability would support the CNY, signaling confidence in economic recovery. A surprise cut would weigh on the currency and global risk sentiment.
• US Inflation & Spending Data:
  • Positive Scenario: Higher-than-expected Core PCE or personal spending would signal resilient inflationary pressures, supporting the USD.
  • Negative Scenario: Weak inflation or spending could weigh on the USD and temper expectations for further Fed tightening.
• Michigan Sentiment & Inflation Expectations:
  Higher sentiment readings would support the USD by indicating consumer optimism. A decline would suggest caution and potentially weigh on the currency.
• Oil Rig Counts:
  Drawdowns in rig counts support oil prices, benefiting CAD and other commodity-linked currencies. Rising counts would pressure prices.
• CFTC Speculative Positions:
  Shifts in positioning may indicate evolving market sentiment in oil, gold, equities, and key currencies, affecting short-term volatility.

Overall Impact

Volatility: Moderate to high, with a focus on US Core PCE, consumer sentiment, and oil-related data.

Impact Score: 8/10, driven by inflation data shaping USD momentum and oil data influencing commodity-linked currencies.