Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 01:00 |  | 2 points | China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Aug) | 3.50% | 3.50% |
| 01:15 | | 2 points | PBoC Loan Prime Rate | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| 02:00 |  | 3 points | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 3.00% | 3.25% |
| 02:00 | | 2 points | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement | ———- | ———- |
| 02:00 | | 2 points | RBNZ Rate Statement | ———- | ———- |
| 03:00 | | 2 points | RBNZ Press Conference | ———- | ———- |
| 07:10 |  | 2 points | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 09:00 | | 3 points | CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 14:30 |  | 3 points | Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | 3.036M |
| 14:30 | | 2 points | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | 0.045M |
| 15:00 | | 2 points | Fed Waller Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | 20-Year Bond Auction | ———- | 4.935% |
| 18:00 | | 3 points | FOMC Meeting Minutes | ———- | ———- |
| 19:00 | | 2 points | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | ———- | ———- |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 20, 2025
Asia – China & New Zealand
China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Aug) – 01:00 UTC
- Forecast: 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%)
- Impact: No change expected. A cut would stimulate housing and infrastructure sectors, supporting equities and commodities but weakening CNY.
PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Aug) – 01:15 UTC
- Forecast: 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%)
- Impact: Stability expected; a surprise cut would pressure CNY and boost Chinese equities.
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – 02:00 UTC
- Forecast: 3.00% (Prev. 3.25%)
- Impact: Expected rate cut highlights slower growth. A dovish statement would pressure NZD. Markets will closely watch the press conference (03:00 UTC) for forward guidance.
Europe – Inflation & ECB Tone
ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 07:10 UTC
- Impact: Any shift in tone (hawkish vs dovish) could affect EUR direction and Eurozone bond yields.
Eurozone Core CPI (YoY, Jul) – 09:00 UTC
- Forecast: 2.3% (Prev. 2.3%)
- Impact: Stable core inflation suggests steady underlying price pressures.
Eurozone CPI (YoY, Jul) – 09:00 UTC
- Forecast: 2.0% (Prev. 2.0%)
- Impact: Headline inflation holding steady reduces ECB pressure for immediate action.
Eurozone CPI (MoM, Jul) – 09:00 UTC
- Forecast: 0.0% (Prev. 0.3%)
- Impact: A flat monthly figure signals cooling momentum, possibly supporting dovish ECB expectations.
United States – Energy, Bonds & Fed Signals
Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 UTC
- Prev.: +3.036M
- Impact: Another build would pressure WTI prices; a draw could support oil and inflation-sensitive assets.
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 UTC
- Prev.: +0.045M
- Impact: Small changes often matter for regional supply-demand balance.
Fed Governor Waller Speaks – 15:00 UTC
- Impact: Hawkish tone would lift USD and yields; dovish stance could support equities.
20-Year Bond Auction – 17:00 UTC
- Prev.: 4.935%
- Impact: Weak demand would push yields higher, pressuring Treasuries and equities.
FOMC Meeting Minutes – 18:00 UTC
- Impact: The day’s most market-moving release. Traders will scrutinize details for clarity on rate trajectory. Dovish hints support equities and bonds; hawkish tone supports USD.
FOMC Member Bostic Speaks – 19:00 UTC
- Impact: Reinforces Fed sentiment after the minutes; can move markets if tone differs from consensus.
Market Impact Analysis
- Asia: RBNZ cut expected → NZD volatility. PBoC holding rates steady supports stability in CNY; surprise cuts would shift risk tone.
- Europe: Inflation at ECB’s comfort zone reduces urgency for hikes. Lagarde’s tone is key for EUR.
- U.S.: Oil inventories, bond auction, and especially FOMC minutes dominate global market direction. Expect sharp USD and yield moves if Fed hints at slower easing or concern over inflation.
Overall Impact Score: 8/10
- Key drivers: RBNZ rate decision, Eurozone CPI, FOMC minutes.
- Expect higher volatility in USD, NZD, EUR, and energy markets.
