Jeremy Oles

Published On: 01/09/2025
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By Published On: 01/09/2025
Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)StateImportanceEventForecastPrevious
01:30🇦🇺2 pointsCurrent Account (Q2)-15.9B-14.7B
03:35🇯🇵2 points10-Year JGB Auction———-1.462%
09:00🇪🇺2 pointsCore CPI (YoY) (Aug)2.2%2.3%
09:00🇪🇺2 pointsCPI (MoM) (Aug)———-0.0%
09:00🇪🇺3 pointsCPI (YoY) (Aug)2.0%2.0%
11:30🇪🇺2 pointsECB’s Elderson Speaks ———-———-
13:45🇺🇸3 pointsS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)53.349.8
14:00🇺🇸2 pointsConstruction Spending (MoM) (Jul)-0.1%-0.4%
14:00🇺🇸2 pointsISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug)———-43.4
14:00🇺🇸3 pointsISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)48.948.0
14:00🇺🇸3 pointsISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug)65.164.8
17:00🇺🇸2 pointsAtlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)3.5%3.5%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on September 2, 2025

Asia – Australia & Japan

Australia – Current Account (Q2) – 01:30 UTC

  • Forecast: -15.9B (Prev.: -14.7B)
  • Impact: A wider deficit signals weaker trade performance, potentially weighing on AUD, especially if commodity prices remain under pressure.

Japan – 10-Year JGB Auction – 03:35 UTC

  • Prev. Yield: 1.462%
  • Impact: Auction demand will shape JGB yields. Strong demand keeps yields low and supports JPY; weak demand may push yields higher, weakening JPY.

Europe – Inflation & ECB Commentary

Eurozone CPI (Aug) – 09:00 UTC

  • Core CPI YoY: 2.2% (Prev.: 2.3%)
  • Headline CPI YoY: 2.0% (Prev.: 2.0%)
  • CPI MoM: Flat expected (Prev.: 0.0%)
  • Impact: Inflation holding steady/slightly softer suggests ECB policy may stay cautious. A surprise decline could weaken EUR; stronger-than-expected inflation could fuel hawkish expectations.

ECB’s Elderson Speaks – 11:30 UTC

  • Impact: Focus will be on his stance regarding inflation persistence and monetary easing. Hawkish tone supports EUR, dovish tone pressures it.

United States – Manufacturing & Growth Outlook

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) – 13:45 UTC

  • Forecast: 53.3 (Prev.: 49.8)
  • Impact: A sharp recovery into expansion signals industrial rebound, positive for USD and equities.

Construction Spending (MoM, Jul) – 14:00 UTC

  • Forecast: -0.1% (Prev.: -0.4%)
  • Impact: Continued contraction in construction would be negative for U.S. growth outlook, particularly housing-related sectors.

ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Aug) – 14:00 UTC

  • PMI Forecast: 48.9 (Prev.: 48.0)
  • Prices Forecast: 65.1 (Prev.: 64.8)
  • Impact: A modest PMI recovery still signals contraction, while high prices reflect inflationary pressure. This mix could complicate Fed policy—growth weak, but costs remain high.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – 17:00 UTC

  • Forecast: 3.5% (same)
  • Impact: Strong tracking estimate underlines resilience in U.S. growth, supportive for USD and yields.

Market Impact Analysis

  • Asia: AUD likely pressured by widening current account deficit, while JGB auction may shift yen sentiment depending on demand.
  • Europe: Eurozone CPI is the main driver—flat inflation keeps EUR under pressure unless ECB commentary turns hawkish.
  • U.S.: PMI readings are pivotal. A strong rebound (S&P 53.3, ISM near 49) alongside high price pressures could strengthen USD and lift yields, while weak data would revive recession fears and favor equities.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

  • Why: U.S. manufacturing data and Eurozone inflation dominate, with potential to move USD, EUR, and equity markets significantly. Strong PMI + firm inflation data could tilt sentiment toward “higher-for-longer” Fed and ECB policies.